weekly
Written by: Guo Wende
2019-12-03 15:00
Last updated: 2019-12-03 15:00The district council elections were held last Sunday (November 24), and the government successively released relevant statistical data, including the increase in the voting rate of each constituency, and so on. "Hong Kong 01" compiled the voting data of the election results of the district council elections this year, and combined with the relevant data of the 2015 district council elections, the 2016 mid-term demographics and the voter registration figures, it tried to analyze the two camps of the democratic camp and the establishment camp to get votes The relationship between the rate and voter turnout, age and income in each constituency.
The two most striking features of this district board election are undoubtedly the result of a high turnout rate of 71.23% and the victory of the democratic faction over the establishment faction. The mainstream public opinion even directly described the former as the cause of the latter, but if we compare This year's voter turnout and democratic votes in each district council constituency, however, will find that the correlation coefficient between the two is only 0.19, and the correlation coefficient of the same group of data in the last 2015 election was only 0.28. They are statistically low. It is related to the degree. It can be seen that the absolute level of voter turnout in a constituency does not have a large impact on the voter turnout rate. Judging from the existing statistics, the factor that can really contribute to the increase in the level of democratic support should be the increase in the voter turnout rate of each constituency.
The voter turnout for this year's District Council elections hit a new high. (Profile picture / Photo by Lu Yiming)
Since there were 431 constituencies in the 2015 District Council elections and 452 constituencies this year, I will explain how to deal with changes in constituencies and the calculation of the increase in the turnout rate. For split constituencies, we will split the voting rate of the old constituencies into the new splits, such as the Sham Shui Po Yuanzhou and Suwu constituencies (the turnout rate is 46.26%). Individual constituencies (the turnout rate is 69.48% and 74.57%), their turnout increase will be counted as 23.22% and 28.31% respectively; for merged constituencies, we will re-calculate the number of registered voters and the number of voters in the old constituency, such as outlying island The two constituencies in Cheung Chau South and Cheung Chau North (45.80% and 38.85% turnout, combined for 42.46%) are merged this year into the Cheung Chau Constituency (turnout rate 67.10%), and the increase in turnout will be 24.64 percentage points.
After the above processing and excluding the four new constituencies of Kwun Tong Anda, Kwun Tong An Tai, Tuen Mun Shin Tin and Yuen Long Hong Fuk, this year we can observe a total of 448 constituencies in the past two District Council elections. Statistical data changes; because in 2015 many constituencies were automatically elected by candidates or without democratic elections, there were only 323 constituencies that could actually compare the increase in the turnout rate with the increase in democratic votes. Based on the data of these constituencies, two can be calculated The correlation coefficient was 0.34 (Figure 1), and there was a moderate correlation in statistics. This means that whenever the voter turnout rate in a constituency increases, the democratic votes will have a chance to increase accordingly, rather than a high voter rate directly leading to increased support; this situation also illustrates the past "silent majority", this year's " The "first voter group" is mainly in support of democracy.
Low correlation between age and position
Regarding the composition of the "first voter", many people will say that they are mainly young people. This is because most experts or scholars have analyzed that the age of voters is closely related to their voting positions, such as the Department of Politics and Administration of the Chinese University of Hong Kong Senior lecturer Cai Ziqiang and research assistant Chen Yiwen studied the voting patterns of young voters in the previous two Legislative Council elections in 2017. One of the conclusions is that "Young people's desire to vote in the Legislative Council elections is much higher than the district board elections ... The younger the people, the more they will vote for the common people in the elections; on the contrary, the older the more they will be the voters. However, the main source of the above impressions is still the results of random interviews, rather than statistical data analysis of the overall age distribution and voting positions of voters in each constituency; especially in the case of recent calls for deliberate misreporting of data to interfere with polls, this sample study I'm afraid the limitations are even more obvious.
As election ballots are conducted in secret, of course, the official will not have statistics on voting positions of all ages, and even the information of voters' age groups has only gradually improved in recent years. Although the number of voters in each district by age group was announced shortly after the 2015 district board elections, the statistical level is limited to 18 district board districts, and detailed data on its 431 district board districts are lacking; on the other hand, Since 2016, the government has listed the distribution of voters by age group according to district board constituencies. Before that, only the figures divided by 18 district board districts were also provided. The lack of the above information has led to an analysis of the voting situation of all ages in the district board elections before 2015. The analysis has not reached the constituency level. Until this year, we have more adequate conditions to examine whether there is a relationship between the age of registered voters in each constituency and the voting position.
Statistics show that the correlation between the proportion of elderly voters in the district board constituencies and the voter turnout rate is low. (Photo / Photo by Li Zetong)
Comparing the proportion of registered voters in the 452 district council constituencies with the votes obtained by the two political camps in the district council elections, we can see that the correlation coefficient between the proportion of voters under the age of 30 in the constituency and the votes obtained by the democratic parties is about 0.13 (Figure 2). The correlation coefficient between the proportion of voters under the age of 40 in the constituency and the voter turnout rate of the democratic parties is about 0.27 (Figure 3), and the correlation coefficient between the proportion of voters over the age of 61 in the constituency and the voter turnout rate of the organizational system is about 0.18 (Figure 4). The three sets of comparisons are statistically low correlation. Although Langzhong has not considered the difference in voter turnouts of different age groups in each constituency, these figures have already been set against the background of the record high total turnout rate in district board elections this year. It is enough to remind us that the overall age distribution of voters and their voting positions are not too strong, so everyone should pay attention not to overemphasize the relationship between the two.
Continue reading: Will voter income affect voting positions?
related articles︰
[District Council Election] Can the "Tsunami of Public Opinions" set a new wind for the community?
[District Council Election] Imagine so low for district members? Only know "successfully fight"?
What should the community map change for the new district council members?
Reflect the courage and test of district members outside public opinion
Starting from district administration, reforming administration and introducing public opinion into the system
The above excerpt is from the 191st issue of the Hong Kong 01 weekly report (December 2, 2019), "Does the Age and Income of the District Council Constituency Data Analysis Affect the Voting Position?"
More weekly articles: [01 Weekly Page]
"Hong Kong 01" Weekly is available at major newsstands, OK convenience stores and Vango convenience stores. You can also subscribe to the weekly newsletter here to read more in-depth reports.
District Council Election 2019 District Council Election Democrat Formation 01 Weekly Report