Navigate between Trump and Erdogan: NATO marks 70 years of its founding, and unknown future

The North Atlantic Alliance is gathering in the shadow of reshaping itself in the face of a host of threats from outside and inside. In the background of strengthening Russia and China, Trump is publicly attacking membership in the alliance, while Erdogan continues to move closer to Moscow and move away from the West. Will she survive?

Navigate between Trump and Erdogan: NATO marks 70 years of its founding, and unknown future

The NATO summit will open in London on Tuesday, at a time when the Alliance's future is in the fog due to a series of internal and external crises. The North Atlantic Alliance, which marks 70 years of its founding, has been under pressure from several fronts, Which has changed dramatically since NATO was established at the end of World War II as a counterweight to the expansion of the Soviet Union.

The Soviets may have disappeared, but Russia under Vladimir Putin threatens the stability of Western democracies and constantly upgrades its power. A report released last week in the UK warned that the Russian military would crush the Allied forces stationed in the Baltic states, located in its eastern wing on the border with Russia.

Apart from the well-known Russian threat, although painted in different colors from the Soviet Union, a new player in the international arena is China. In 1949, the year that NATO was established as a US defense force for Western Europeans, the Communists won the civil war in China. In the past seven decades, China became a non-democratic world power trying to gain a foothold in almost every corner of the earth.

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Few believe that Article 5 of the NATO treaty still exists and muscle. Trump lands in London for meeting (Photo: Reuters)

US President Donald Trump lands in London for NATO meeting December 03, 2019. (Photo: AP)

More than its external threats, the North Atlantic Alliance is absorbing internal shocks. The main principle that guided her was that an attack on one of the companies would be regarded as an attack on the entire Alliance, as a deterrent from any hostile state. However, few believe that Article 5 of the NATO treaty still exists and muscle when US President Donald Trump has not concealed his reservations over the past three years.

Trump argues that other countries should increase their spending on their defense, which to this day has been largely imposed on America's broad shoulders. His predecessor Barack Obama also raised this demand, but the current president's public attacks against the veteran allies of the United States, Germany and France, of NATO's founding stones, have raised many doubts about the continued survival of the Alliance.

That's what led French President Emmanuel Macron to argue that the Alliance is in "brain death" and that European countries must upgrade their defense capabilities in light of Washington's unexpected policies. It may have been a deliberate attempt to create a storm to shake up, but his warnings were rejected by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and even more blatantly by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - the second major source of internal tensions in the Alliance.

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Turkey has moved away from Western values. Flag of Turkey alongside United States in London ahead of the summit (Photo: Reuters)

Flags of the United States, Turkey and NATO in London ahead of the NATO summit in the city. December 03, 2019. (Photo: Reuters)

Turkey, whose second largest army in NATO after the United States, was of critical importance to the West during the Cold War to prevent the Soviet Union from expanding in the region. Turkey has moved away from western values ​​and moved closer to the east, but despite the concern of European countries to say it full mouth - the Trump administration is not very disturbing - it is difficult to define today's Turkey as anything but a dictatorship.

The number of journalists imprisoned in it is one of the largest in the world, Kurdish mayors elected democratically ousted and replaced by Erdogan loyalists and institutionalized religious conservatism are strengthened. Turkey is doing its best in the world, in many cases contrary to the interests of those who are supposed to be NATO allies. , After Trump evacuated U.S. forces from the area without consulting other leaders in the alliance.

In addition, Turkey has in recent years tightened its relations with Russia, the same country that sees NATO as an existential threat to it. Its decision to purchase the advanced S-400 air defense system has led to a crisis with the United States, which has removed it from the F-35 aircraft development plan due to The fear that sensitive information on the advanced evaders will leak to Moscow.

Nevertheless, Trump, who is known for his fondness for authoritarian leaders, is soft-spoken about Erdogan and even hosted him with great respect and glory last month. The sanctions Congress requested the government to impose on Ankara for its deal with Russia, which it is by no means ready to repeal, still remain on the shelf, and those imposed on it after the Kurdish campaign began were frozen within days after a ceasefire agreement, which was repeatedly violated. Only yesterday, many civilians were killed in a Turkish bombing in northern Syria, including children.

"NATO's brain death is currently underway." French President Emmanuel Macron (Photo: AP)

French President Emmanuel Macron pays last respects to the 13 British soldiers killed in Mali. December 03, 2019. (Photo: AP)

These events, and the lack of collective response from other NATO companies, reflected Macron's harsh criticism: something stinking in the strongest military alliance in the world. Moreover, Reuters reported last week that Ankara is embracing NATO defense plan for Baltic states Until the rest of the US allies agree to recognize the Kurdish militia in Syria - the partner in the fight against ISIS - a terrorist organization.

"We are currently experiencing NATO brain death," the French president said in an interview with Economist magazine last month, citing the crises facing the United States and Turkey. "Strategically and politically, we must identify that we have a problem." He will meet Trump, whom he has tried To convince unsuccessfully throughout his tenure in a series of moves, and also to Erdogan, who said that the French president is probably the one who suffers from brain death.

The two-day summit will take place outside London, to which 29 Alliance leaders will discuss the future and the challenges it faces. World terrorism is expected to be at the center of the agenda, following the London attack last Friday that swept the cards in the kingdom before the election in less than two weeks. Host Prime Minister Boris Johnson, accused by his political rivals of politicizing the attack in which two civilians were murdered, hopes that Trump will not push his nose this time for the election campaign and the never-ending barracks process. Britain is trying to show that it is committed to NATO despite retiring from the EU, but in the scenario of the Labor government at the beginning of Jeremy Corbyn, it may be turning money from the defense budget into social budgets.

Hope Trump doesn't push his nose into the election campaign. British Prime Minister Johnson (Photo: Reuters)

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at an election meeting in Colchester. December 03, 2019. (Photo: Reuters)

NATO leaders do not know what Trump is expecting. The US president is currently busy with the impeachment proceeding in Congress due to the Ukraine-Gate affair, and during the summit there will be further hearings. Trump is already outraged by Democrats for conducting the hearing against him as he discusses strategic security issues , And the issue is expected to keep him busy during his stay in the UK.

Last year, he issued an admonition speech at the conclusion of the NATO summit, even though he threatened to retire if the other companies failed to meet their target - at least 2% of their GDP in a defense budget. Its threat had an impact: a year and a half later, nine European countries in the Alliance, including France and the United Kingdom, increased their spending on the defense budget, but only six countries except the United States were expected to reach the 2% threshold.

A German government official said NATO companies would re-declare at the end of the summit to support the principle of mutual defense, but what ultimately came down to the facts: Trump's "America First" policy on the one hand, Erdogan's dictatorship on the one hand, and European helplessness weakened regularly NATO, while Russia and China are bleeding.