weekly
Written by: Guo Wende
2019-12-03 15:00
Last updated: 2019-12-03 15:00The results of this year's district board election are shocking, but the two camps participating in the election should reflect on the true attributes of their supporters from statistical data. Statistics show that the establishments have gained greater support in high-income constituencies, while the remaining middle- and low-income constituencies have no clear preference.
Carrying on the above: Are young "yellow" and old "blue" real?
In addition to age, economic income is another important factor that is thought to influence voters' voting positions. The general perception of society is that the ballots of the establishment are mainly from the grassroots and the top poles of the society. The supporters of the democracy are mainly the middle class. However, this kind of cognition lacks detailed data to support it. The "Middle Class Constituency" has a higher turnout rate than the average in Hong Kong. However, the registered address obviously cannot be regarded as an indicator that reflects the income level of voters and the social class. For example, young middle class people staying with their parents because of high property prices. Public housing and HOS flats are also normal. In contrast, the housing estates belonging to the "middle-class constituency" do not rule out that a considerable number of "hidden riches" may be hidden.
Just like the age group, the official statistics will naturally not show data that directly reveals the relationship between voter income and voting positions in various districts. In fact, in the past, the government released information on voter registration or election results, and it did not consider the issue of voter income at all. Fortunately, Hong Kong conducted a mid-term demographic survey from June to August 2016. One of the relevant data is the geographical division of the 431 district board electoral boundaries used in the 2015 district board elections. The statistics include The median monthly household income of the constituency population; even though the median is still statistically difficult to directly show the overall situation, it is still the only set of data that can barely reflect the population income of each constituency.
The formation rate of high-income constituencies was positively related to the median household income in the district. (Profile picture)
After arranging 448 constituencies with medium-term demographic income data by median monthly household income and dividing them into four segments, you can find quarters with higher population income (median monthly household income is 34,000 The correlation coefficient between the median income and the voter formation rate in the system reached 0.48 (Figure 5), that is, the two are moderately related, which is sufficient to show that voters in high-income constituencies do show a more obvious political bias, such as Of the three constituencies with a median household income of more than 100,000 yuan, the Peak District of the Central and Western District and the Gulf of the South District were also ranked among the top three constituencies for the candidates for the formed district. As for the other three income constituencies, the median income and voter stance are only low correlation or weaker, indicating that voters in the middle and low income constituencies are less likely to support which camp.
Based on the above-mentioned preliminary analysis of the recent two district board elections, mid-term demographics, and voter registration figures, we can know that the traditional view of young and middle-class voters tending to support democrats has not been able to find strong positive evidence on the statistical data. There are even more indications that the age or income of voters in a constituency is, in most cases, weakly related to the voting rates of the two major political camps; the only moderate correlation is the combination of higher-income constituencies and constitutional votes, which may be cited. "Hong Kong 01" has always been criticized by the government and the formed parties in favor of vested interests in society.
Based on the above-mentioned preliminary analysis of the recent two district board elections, mid-term demographics, and voter registration figures, we can know that the traditional view of young and middle-class voters tending to support democrats has not been able to find strong positive evidence on the statistical data. There are even more indications that the age or income of voters in a constituency is in most cases weakly related to the votes obtained by the two major political camps; the only moderate correlation is the combination of higher income constituencies and the formation of votes, which is exactly cited "Hong Kong 01" has always been criticized by the government and the establishment for favoring the vested interests of society. There are many "first voters" who support democracy in this election. Obviously, this group can no longer be summarized simply by their young and middle class. The result of the defeat of the establishment system also shows that people's grievances have long been planted in different age groups and income groups.
Traditional statements about voter age, income and voting positions have not been supported by sufficient statistics. (Profile picture)
The trigger for voters to use the ballots to punish the establishment in the district board elections is, of course, a conflict between various police and civilians in the anti-revision storm. However, this group of people is not limited to a specific age and income class, but it also shows that this is only a deep level of Hong Kong. Another outbreak of structural contradictions. It is unknown whether Hong Kong government officials and constitutionalists, after undergoing the campaign of the District Council election, will be able to make painstaking efforts, make up their minds to change course, and make drastic changes.
related articles︰
[District Council Election] Can the "Tsunami of Public Opinions" set a new wind for the community?
[District Council Election] Imagine so low for district members? Only know "successfully fight"?
What should the community map change for the new district council members?
Reflect the courage and test of district members outside public opinion
Starting from district administration, reforming administration and introducing public opinion into the system
The above excerpt is from the 191st issue of the Hong Kong 01 weekly report (December 2, 2019), "Does the Age and Income of the District Council Constituency Data Analysis Affect the Voting Position?"
More weekly articles: [01 Weekly Page]
"Hong Kong 01" Weekly is available at major newsstands, OK convenience stores and Vango convenience stores. You can also subscribe to the weekly newsletter here to read more in-depth reports.
District Council Election 2019 District Council Election Democratic Party 01 Weekly Report
