weekly
Written by: Yang Yutao
2019-12-04 16:35
Last updated: 2019-12-04 20:08After the election results of the District Councils were released on Monday (November 25), the media in the Mainland became "silent." Until about 2 pm, the official media Xinhua News Agency released a press release entitled "End of the Sixth District Council Election of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region", in addition to saying things like the escalation of violence in Hong Kong in the past five months, tearing of social sentiments, etc. No word on the election results. This is really because the results of the pan-democratic group getting 385 seats and the constitutional group getting only 59 seats are too unexpected. It should be said that from the establishment faction, the Hong Kong government to the central government, they are aware that in the context of the continuous ferment of anti-revision legislation, elections are not good for the establishment faction, but the relatively common view is "not to fail." However, the most embarrassing result should be enough to make Beijing sober: the solution of the Hong Kong issue is urgent and the time has come to start the comprehensive reform of the Hong Kong governance system. If we continue to allow some departments and some people to "dress the peace", it will not help Hong Kong to restore stability and the practice of "one country, two systems."
The results of this District Council election were beyond the expectations of the Central Government, the Hong Kong Government, and the establishment faction, proving that they had seriously misjudged the election situation beforehand. Looking back at the six months of revisions, the number of demonstrations has been record-breaking. On June 16, the parade launched by the FDC claimed that as many as 2 million people participated in it, making it the largest demonstration in Hong Kong history. However, after entering November, especially after radical demonstrators occupied the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, public opinion in Hong Kong seems to have shifted. More citizens have come forward to fight back the protesters ’violence and disrupt social order. practice.
On November 12, police and clashes broke out at the second bridge of the University of China. (Photo / Photo by Yu Junliang)
Misjudging the situation
This change has spread on the mainland network through video and article reports, so that the central government, the Hong Kong government, the establishment faction, and even many mainland netizens once thought that the public opinion in Hong Kong had shifted, and Hong Kong people had "enough." Therefore, before the district board elections, the mainland media generally packaged the district board elections as an "anti-violence" referendum. CCTV commented that "this is an opportunity not to be missed by votes to save Hong Kong", calling on Hong Kong to "silence Most people must fight back; People ’s Daily publishes a video on social media, many Hong Kong stars are calling for an end to violence and rebuilding “Hong Kong as everyone knows”; Global Times tweeted “You want a peaceful and prosperous Hong Kong, Still a violent and brutal Hong Kong "; even the" Beijing Daily "also issued a comment" I look forward to more Hong Kong citizens seeing the truth and insisting on protecting their homeland with votes and more actions. "
In fact, even if the mainstream public opinion has changed, it is only in the "primary stage". Worries about violence are not enough to obviously reverse Hong Kong people's dissatisfaction with the SAR government and the mood of angering the establishment. It is true that some "silent majority" stood out, but the main groups were young people and white-collar workers who rarely voted. Most of these two groups voted for the pan-popular camp.
The voter turnout for this year's District Council elections hit a new high. (Profile picture / Photo by Lu Yiming)
Whitewash
Why is there such a "misjudgement"? On the one hand, it reflects the reality that the central government and the Hong Kong government still do not understand and are unclear about the mainstream public opinion in Hong Kong society; on the other hand, it is also the result of "whitewashing the peace" by the mainland media and the central Hong Kong-related agencies in the past 22 years. The storm has arrived, and they still have the illusion that Hong Kong's basic situation has not changed. They still believe that "the establishment system has cultivated in the grassroots and the community for many years. It has not only established an emotional foundation with voters, but also has a livelihood card. It has political resources and The advantage of experience is that it is more efficient than the common people in solving various community problems. "Therefore, in the district councils, which are" consultative and service-oriented and not so hot-blooded ", the" institutionalists have inherent advantages. " This misunderstanding was again transmitted to the people in the central and inland areas. As a result, they deceived themselves and lost everything.
On the day of the announcement of the results of the district council elections, except for the Global Times, which published a social commentary encouraging the establishments to "don't be discouraged", other media tacitly pretended to be "nothing in the world". In the absence of official comments, various trail comments have fermented and spread space, and even mainland netizens said that "it is precisely because of the ineffectiveness of Hong Kong's constitutionalists that they have turned their opinions", which is ridiculous.
Twenty-two years after Hong Kong's reunification, the mainland propaganda department and the central government's Hong Kong-related agencies whitewashed the peace, making the central government feel that Hong Kong is "very good", which has deepened the deep-seated structural contradictions in Hong Kong and eventually failed to end. The propaganda department also concealed public opinion in internal propaganda. Most of the pictures appearing on CCTV's "News Broadcasting" are "patriotic and loving Hong Kong people" condemning the violence, as if most Hong Kong people support the Hong Kong government and support the establishment; According to reports of 2 million people taking to the streets, Lu Media still uses "a small group of people" to describe it, and even attributed the cause of the storm to "external forces"; a little bit of change in public opinion was "a treasure", and the results were misleading Because of public opinion and high-level judgments in the Mainland, the issue has not been truly reflected.
On November 25, the formation of the district council lost most of its seats. The Democratic Party, the largest party of the establishment, convened the Central Committee and met with reporters after the meeting. Chairman Li Huiqiong said the election was a major setback and apologized to the public. (Profile picture / Photo by Luo Junhao)
The abscess is not exposed, and the crux is always there, not to mention that there are always people who make mistakes in the ranks of whitewashers. Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao said on Tuesday (November 26) when reporting the results of the district council elections that "the constitutionalists insisted on fighting against violence and gained 55% in votes." According to the report, the constitutional faction finally obtained 59 seats under the stigma and attacks of the continuing riots and pan-violent factions. The anti-violence establishment faction received 1.235 million votes in total, an increase of more than 441,000 votes or an increase of 55.5% compared with 2015.
Although the reports are all facts, they are only partial facts, and they are blind to the more important fact that the institutionalists suffered an avalanche-like rout. The voter turnout for this district board election was as high as 71.2%, with a total of more than 2.94 million voters. Both the overall voter turnout and the total voter hit a record high since the reunification of Hong Kong. Although the establishment faction "has won 1.235 million votes in total, an increase of 55.5%", it cannot cover the fact that the total number of votes and the increase of the popular people far exceed the establishment faction. Not to mention that the establishment faction only had 59 seats, compared with the 385 seats of the general public, and the formation faction had won 292 seats in the last election. No matter which information is compared, it is a huge gap.
The amended legislation has fully exposed the deep-seated contradictions and problems that have existed in Hong Kong for many years. The defeat of the establishment faction is exactly the projection of many Hong Kong people's dissatisfaction with the Hong Kong government. Many years of deep-seated contradictions are afraid that it will not help and it will be difficult to convince the public. What's more, in a city with a diverse and open media environment in Hong Kong, the dissemination of information is very convenient. A media company so avoids the slightest, and even publicly whitewashes peace and good news without worrying about it, which may only weaken its credibility in Hong Kong. In particular, Hong Kong media such as Ta Kung Pao are often regarded as "Chinese official media" by Hong Kong people. Many Hong Kong people will interpret Beijing's attitude from their reports. Imagine how this would make Hong Kong people think of Beijing?
Pro-Beijing media such as Ta Kung Pao are often regarded as "Chinese official media" by Hong Kong people. (Profile picture / Photo by Zhuang Gongnan)
What to do in Beijing
"During an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent." Faced with a major defeat, the formationists, the Hong Kong government, and the central government in particular all needed reflection. Some commentaries used the term "change in nature" to describe the election of the Hong Kong District Council. This description is also correct, but not correct. To say "yes" is because the establishment faction has suffered a big defeat; to say "no" is because the "sky" of "one country, two systems" has not changed. To some extent, the embarrassment of the central government and the mainland media is precisely the embodiment of the values of democracy and the rule of law in Hong Kong, or the "two systems" characteristic of "one country, two systems".
Democratic elections are inherently highly uncertain. The so-called public opinion is like flowing water, and the election results are difficult to predict in most cases. More importantly, the election result, or "public opinion", may not be completely rational, and may even be influenced by deliberate political manipulation or emotions. It may not necessarily make a positive "reward" for the development of the situation, sometimes Will overreact again. But it also needs to be frankly acknowledged that in the context of ballot politics, this is the normal expression of public opinion, and the signals it sends need to be interpreted by the authorities. Regarding this election of the Hong Kong District Council, in fact, Beijing may frankly face the unavoidable reality of democratic elections, take an objective and rational view of the election results and the dissatisfaction of voters, and regard it as a normal election phenomenon under "one country, two systems", especially when When the result is unfavorable, it should be regarded as a useful opportunity for "feedback" and self-review.
(Profile picture / Photo by Lu Yiming)
Beijing needs to look at the results of this election, and not be disturbed by the seemingly unfavorable situation or the perception of the Hong Kong issue. Institutional self-confidence should not just be a slogan. Continued adherence to "one country, two systems" should be the unwavering attitude of the central government. At the same time, the storm of revisions and district board elections are like two signals. Beijing must wake up from the illusion of "nothing in the world" in the past, find the inevitable cause of accidental results, see the dissatisfaction in Hong Kong society, and review the past administration of Hong Kong Existing omissions, actively responding to the concerns of Hong Kong society, urging and supervising the Hong Kong government to initiate structural reforms, including the governance system and the governance capacity of officials, to thoroughly understand exactly what Hong Kong should "persist and consolidate, improve and develop", and do a good job at home and abroad Communicate and explain, resolve the port-offensive confrontation, and avoid the spiral of non-trust and hostility between the port and the people.
What the central government needs to realize more is that behind the storm of revisions in Hong Kong, there is also the Taiwan issue, which concerns whether the "one country, two systems, Taiwan plan" can be more widely recognized in Taiwan. Therefore, how to comprehensively reform Hong Kong's governance system, how to give a new era spirit to "one country, two systems", and how to make Hong Kong better instead of sinking, are the core issues of Hong Kong governance in this era. 
The above excerpt is from the 191st issue of the "Hong Kong 01" weekly report (December 2, 2019) "What needs to be rethinked in the defeat of Beijing by the establishment system".
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