Dade beam line: expected property prices fell 10 to 15% in the first half of next year, rents continued to fall by more than 10%

Real estate market

Written by: Lin Leqian

2019-12-10 17:53

The outlook for the property market is unclear. Dedell Leung released the 2019 Property Review Report, stating that residential property prices in Hong Kong experienced the most rapid increase at the beginning of the year, but the market deterioration and transactions decreased in the second half of the year, offsetting some of the increases in the first half of the year. Still up 5.9%.

Tao Ruhong, vice president of the bank's Greater China region, pointed out that the recent social atmosphere has eased, coupled with the government's relaxation of the insurance ceiling, which has temporarily stimulated the property market, but the December transaction has fallen to 4,000, which is similar to the October transaction volume.

He estimates that the trading volume will increase in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the continuing political situation and the Sino-US trade negotiations, it is expected that the impact of relevant factors on Hong Kong's economic base will emerge in the second to third quarters of next year, including GDP. ) And unemployment rate, etc., believe that there is downward pressure on property prices. It is expected that the price may fall by 10 to 15% in the first half of the year, and the trend in the second half depends on developments.

Rentals in Causeway Bay expected to fall by up to 14% next year

Hong Kong ’s retail sales fell for nine consecutive months. The report pointed out that rents in various districts picked up in the first half of the year. With the continued social conflict, the increase has been completely offset in the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter, rents in various districts fell to their lowest levels in five years. Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok, which experienced the largest declines in rents, fell about 10% quarter-to-quarter, Central fell 9.8%, Causeway Bay fell 8.5%, and core rents also recorded declines.

Lin Yingwei, the head of the Hong Kong retail department of the bank, believes that there is no sign of calming down in social events, and it will depend on the performance of traditional festivals to determine whether the rent of retail shops has bottomed out.

He expected that rents in various districts would record double-digit declines next year. Among them, rents in Causeway Bay were the most severe, and they were expected to fall by about 12 to 14%. Central, Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok fell by 10 to 13%.

Dade beam property prices