People talk to each other again. This is the main outcome of the Paris Summit, which discussed the future of Donbass on Monday. The heads of state and government of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany have not only negotiated into the night, they have also agreed to meet again in four months. In other words, the "Normandy format", ie Ukrainian-Russian talks in the presence of the French President and the German Chancellor, has just been revived. After three long years of silence this is an important result.
All the other agreements of the Paris Summit, on the other hand, are only small, if important, steps. A breakthrough is far away - but that was realistically not expected.
- First, a truce has been agreed - but there is already such a truce, so it is only an affirmation. After all, they want to continue the separation of forces, which has carried out the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj against great resistance in his own country. By March 2020, troops will be transferred back to three other locations along the front line.
- Secondly, there should be a comprehensive exchange of prisoners by the end of the year. But who is considered a prisoner as a result of the conflict, but there is no agreement. For the time being, therefore, it will not be about the exchange "All against all", which is the goal on paper.
- And thirdly, there have been discussions about future local elections in the separatist areas , where so far Moscow-loyal and factually directly used by the Kremlin ruling the shots. The final declaration of the summit stipulates a commitment of Kiev: It should pour the so-called "Steinmeier formula" into law. The formula stipulates that the former separatist areas will automatically receive special status within the Ukrainian state as soon as the OSCE recognizes local elections as free and fair. Kiev already agreed in Minsk to this formula.
President Selenskyj has also cleared another hurdle in a separate press event. He spoke out in favor of extending an existing law on the status of the separatist territories, which expires at the end of the year.
These are small practical steps, but there will be plenty of time to review their implementation by the next summit in four months. And then it will also show whether Selenskyj's calculus works out, which became clear on Monday evening at the Paris press conference. It consists in generating as much favor with its western partners as possible with manageable concessions and conciliatory gestures. These should then help him to design more flexibly for the Kiev unacceptable points of the Minsk agreement. Vladimir Putin, it is to be feared, will not be ready.
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And another question remains open - that after the gas transit. A bilateral meeting between Selensky and Putin on which conditions Ukraine continues to channel Russian gas to Western Europe was a matter of concern due to the expiration of a transit agreement and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 underwater pipeline. Details were not disclosed.
Selenskyj was confident that the tone in Paris was polite and respectful. The first meeting with Putin was a difficult challenge for the inexperienced Ukrainian president. He seems to have passed them.
