"What? What suddenly?": With the dissolution of the Knesset, Plunter will officially become chaos

Three months into the political fray in its efforts to form a government but with the dissolution of the Knesset, the state is heading for another six months of uncertainty. If no last-minute turnaround occurs, Netanyahu and Gantz's goal in the next election is clear: to reach the 61 long-term mandates, without Lieberman

"What? What suddenly?": With the dissolution of the Knesset, Plunter will officially become chaos

If a year ago someone predicted that in 2019 Israel would undergo three election campaigns, the prevalent response was "What, what, suddenly?" If, after the April elections, someone would predict that within the month and a half, the 21st Knesset would dissipate itself - the response was the same, accompanied by a raised eyebrow and puzzled expression. As a lesson in the short-term experience, when the map of the mandates became clear after the September elections and mainly the crippling draw between the leaders and the blocs, the possibility of further elections was already drawn to the air quite quickly. And still, "What? What suddenly?" Is the common response ever since.

28 days in pursuit of another 28 days in pursuit of another 21 days, the mandate to form a government passed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Speaker Blue White Gantz, and the unbelievable way to become a reality. If there is no last-minute dramatic sensation, the 22nd Knesset is about to disperse - Volunteering - and marching the country once again for dirty, expensive and disgusting elections, and the icing on the cake: No one can really guarantee that this will be the last time.What suddenly? So many historical political precedents were created in 2019, you will know what will be in 2020.

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No one can really guarantee this is the last time. Gantz, Edelstein, Netanyahu and Rivlin (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz, State President Reuben (Ruby) Rivlin and July Edelstein during the State Memorial Ceremony for Isaac and Leah Rabin, Mount Herzl, Jerusalem, November 10, 2019 (Photo: Reuben Castro)

A lot of people have been working very hard in the last few weeks to avoid this moment. Negotiating teams, mediators, messengers, consultants, associates, activists and just concerned citizens scurried around trying to find a solution to what has been called the "political plunder" to-day, and tonight at midnight it will officially become chaos. Countless proposals, outlines, guarantees, collateral have been placed on the tables of Netanyahu, Gantz, Israeli House Speaker Avigdor Lieberman and other party leaders to form governments in a variety of vehicles and bring stability to the state instead of being dragged into another six months of uncertainty.

The politicians hoped to be spared a replay of the shameful show of finger-lifting for the dissolution of the previous Knesset; In principle, even without raising their hands, the Knesset will automatically disperse tonight, with the end of the last 21 days where a creative solution could be found. But given the decision to make the election in less than 90 days, the Knesset will have to vote on Wednesday on four calls for a special bill that will set them on March 2, 2020. Last time, only 75 MKs raised their hands in favor of shortening their lives Many of them have lost their places because of this, this time the entire plenary will be held jointly, because at midnight, like Cinderella, the Knesset is already dissipating on its own.

What is the legislative process, and can elections still be prevented? Scattering of the Knesset, the complete guide

A replay of the shameful show of finger lifting for the Knesset dissipation. Inauguration of the 22nd Knesset (Photo: Reuven Castro)

22nd Knesset Ceremony (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Many promised to move every stone and make every effort to prevent elections, but the main mine nobody was able to dismantle - Netanyahu's legal situation. This is what set the terms of the negotiations and most importantly the demand to be first in rotation, this is what deepened his alliances with the natural partners on the right and the ultra-Orthodox, the so-called "block" today. This is why white and blue did not want to sit with him, and the only way to persuade them was through a complicated legal and legislative outline that included only a fundamental change in law for him. It's also what made Netanyahu realize very quickly that if he fails to form a government under his leadership - it is better for him to run for elections than to give up his seat to someone else and risk losing the chair just as he is being indicted. Political officials who spoke to him in the days following the September elections say he was already talking seriously about the idea.

Since then, many conceptions, false predictions, and false prophecies have been broken: The connection between Netanyahu and the block has turned out to be his smartest move, and has not disintegrated either way; The relationship between Gantz and MK Yair Lapid only tightened rather than dismantling blue and white. Gantz did not form a minority government in support of the joint list, Lieberman did not return home to a narrow right-wing ultra-Orthodox government, and the Likud land did not shake under Netanyahu's feet - even after failing twice in the train Gideon Sa'ar comes to life with Netanyahu and is expected to face him in primaries, but dreams of a coup or a Likud split turned out to be a flower.

Crossing the Rubicon for elections

All the scenarios and scenarios went awry, most notably the expectation that things would start moving as the election sword became real. In reality, just the opposite happened: Until yesterday, there was anyone who believed that Gantz and Netanyahu could be brought together under an agreed and detailed outline that would mark Netanyahu's departure point after the Independence Day, plus legal and legal guarantees from across America.

Netanyahu really went a long way towards Gantz, his advisers and associates told him, most of whom thought he should take it. But in a battle between Netanyahu and the Cockpit over Gantz's heart was victorious: Torch's knightly concession to the rotation signaled a stop sign for any possibility of dismantling blue-white and signaling the Rubicon crossing for election; Netanyahu's public demand for a waiver of immunity was, at this point, just a goat / spin thrown into the blame game.

Barricaded himself high in the seemingly neutral position. Lieberman (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Avigdor Lieberman on Knesset's inauguration day, October 2019 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

For the past 48 hours, there has been a complete stalemate in unity talks, and Lieberman has also become high on the seemingly neutral stance that holds the responsibility for the elections on the Likud and on white, not just himself. So far, he has not signaled his intention to make a U-turn and support a narrow-minded right-wing government, but it is always a good idea to keep his place, at least until the press conference he convenes today at noon. The last concept that might break is that there will still be a surprising turnaround that no one thought of at the last minute, but not sure Lieberman will give much more than a good show to the cameras.

Netanyahu and Gantz's main goal - reaching 61 seats without Lieberman (Photo: Reuven Castro)

The logistics warehouse of the Knesset Election Commission, 05.09.19 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

The accusation game, which usually fades within a fortnight or so, may become an integral part of the ongoing campaign noise this time around, because it is not an isolated election but part of a long and rolling political crisis that has already plagued 2019 and is now threatening 2020. The prevailing assumption, which is currently rising from most polls, is We are very likely to return to the same point of a triple draw in which Netanyahu and Gantz have no one government without the other and both owe Lieberman. So the main goal of both is to reach 61 seats - without it; The first will allow a government to be formed with the loyal bloc and buy a majority at the Knesset's request for immunity from the Knesset.

They will both be forced to play a gentle game with the small parties on the sides, right and left, taking care of connections and unions and making sure they pass the blocking percentage and do not throw tens of thousands of votes into the trash. But all the scripts that have surfaced in recent months show that you should be careful with the assessments, and 12 weeks is a lot of time for surprises and developments "What? What suddenly?" Surprisingly in the plot.