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Written by: Xiao Yu
2019-12-12 23:00
Last updated: 2019-12-12 23:16The Sino-US trade war has been tugging for a year, and the Sino-US game has also spread in a wider range of areas. On the one hand, it is a political confrontation, on the other hand, it is a fateful economic and trade agreement. Even if both sides have the motivation to reach an agreement, the complexity of the reality may also lead to the derailment of great powers.
2019 is coming to an end. The United States will enter the 2020 election year. What changes have taken place in Sino-US relations? What challenges will we face in the future? To what extent has the trade war changed Sino-US relations? What kind of thinking has China and the US caused over the new disputes including the Hong Kong issue?
Focusing on the above topics, "Hong Kong 01" interviewed scholars on Sino-US relations to analyze Sino-US relations from the perspectives of politics, economy, and major power relations.
This is the first interview with Gong Jiong, a professor at the Department of Economics of China University of International Business and Economics.
01: Although no clear timeline has been announced for the signing of the first phase of the China-US agreement, both parties have agreed that the first phase of the agreement will proceed at a predetermined pace. However, at the end of November, the US Congress passed the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy and the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act of 2019. The Chinese side strongly condemned and adopted corresponding countermeasures. The outside world can't help worrying that such moves by the United States will undermine the atmosphere for the signing of the agreement between China and the United States, which will eventually lead to the difficulty of the agreement.
In your opinion, what impact will the US passage of the Hong Kong Bill have on Hong Kong and the Mainland, as well as on Sino-US trade negotiations?
Gong Jiong : Before the United States signed the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy, as far as I know, the negotiations between the two sides are progressing well, and the possibility of signing the agreement is very high. If Chile holds the APEC meeting as scheduled, China and the United States may have signed Agreement. Before the United States passed the Hong Kong Act, China and the United States have actually started discussing the signing place of the agreement. There are various other signs that the negotiations have ended and the agreement may be signed only one time.
Judging from Trump's speech, he is not very interested in the Hong Kong bill and even opposes the excessive attention of American public opinion on Hong Kong. On the topic of Hong Kong, the trend of one-sidedness in Western public opinion is very obvious. Trump certainly understands what is happening in Hong Kong, but he doesn't think the United States makes sense to attack China on the issue of Hong Kong, and at a critical time when the United States and China are about to reach an agreement, the passage of the Hong Kong bill will only hinder this process.
Another point is that the Hong Kong bill was strongly promoted by the US Congress, but in Trump's view, the Constitution stipulates that diplomacy is the president's right, so Congress has become suspicious. However, diplomatic disputes between the United States President and Congress have persisted throughout American history.
The anti-amendment march in Hong Kong continues to ferment, and the passage of the Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy by the United States is seen as a great encouragement to demonstrators. The picture shows demonstrators encouraging the crowd to leave peacefully after the Human Rights Day march. (Reuters)
The passage of this bill by the US Congress is reasonable, and Trump has signed it despite the complaints. As for how much the bill affects China-US trade talks, I think from the current point of view, the impact will not be great, and the first phase of China-US negotiations will continue to be signed. Although this bill emphasizes human rights and democracy, the specific content involved has little to do with these, and a large part is about technology control.
Two of the bills have a direct impact on Hong Kong. The first is a one-year review of the status of the United States on Hong Kong's independent customs zone. In principle, I think that even with this article, the annual review will still pass. The main purpose is to increase the US's card on Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong's trade with the United States is also very important. But what ultimately hurts Hong Kong's interests is that the central government will not compromise on issues of principle.
The passage of the bill by the United States has hit the confidence of Hong Kong investors very much. As far as I know, Hong Kong's current foreign investment is relatively serious, and many private capital have been transferred to Singapore. It can be seen that the victims of this Hong Kong movement are Hong Kong itself, especially the middle class in Hong Kong, which depends on the financial industry, trade, shipping and service industries. The short-term impact is already obvious, and in the long run, it may even cause Hong Kong's middle stage to shrink.
Another one that has a greater impact on Hong Kong is sanctions against Hong Kong government personnel. The most direct point is the Hong Kong police. This article contains the confiscation of their assets in the United States, which has a great impact on Hong Kong law enforcement officers, because many of them have assets in the United States or their children are in school in the United States. This bill is similar to binding their hands and feet and psychologically cracking them down. However, the impact on the Chinese mainland and the damage to interests are relatively limited.
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01: Many forces in the US Congress believe that China ’s policy on China has failed in the past 40 years, and now it ’s time to change. As China ’s pace of catching up with the United States accelerates, the containment of China from various fields has become one of the few in the United States. Consensus, the imposition of economic sanctions on Chinese communications company Huawei, the introduction of bills against Hong Kong, and various actions on issues related to Xinjiang and Tibet are putting pressure on Sino-US relations. Will Hong Kong become a major position for Sino-US competition?
Gong Jiong : There is incitement from outside forces in the Hong Kong issue. I agree. The anti-amendment procession in Hong Kong has continued for more than five months, and there must be a US figure behind it. There are thousands of staff in the US Consulate General in Hong Kong, and these people must have played many roles. However, it should be realized that the essence of the Hong Kong problem is still internal, and the United States only plays a role in fueling the situation.
Indeed, the existing consensus in the United States is to change the past policy toward China, and Congress is bound to rush to the forefront. Some members of parliament can organize to do something under the banner, and once this banner is set out, it is difficult for others to oppose it. This is a big problem. The Hong Kong bill is just the beginning, and a series of bills are still being prepared in the US Congress. The Xinjiang-related bill just released is an example, and even the Taiwan card will be replayed.
01: Although China has adopted countermeasures against the United States, it can be seen that China's countermeasures are still relatively restrained. If the United States repeatedly challenges China's bottom line on issues involving China's sovereignty, is there a risk that Sino-US relations will run out of control? How should China respond?
Gong Jiong : I think the most important point is whether the Trump administration and Beijing can control the escalation. I don't think the current Hong Kong bill will affect China-US negotiations, but if new events continue to occur in the future, China will be forced to counteract, which may eventually lead to tension and loss of Sino-US relations. At present against China ’s countermeasures against the passage of the Hong Kong Act, China ’s countermeasures are still very restrained.
But the problem is that if the US Congress continues to promulgate relevant bills and intensify the atmosphere of confrontation between China and the United States, it will also bring huge uncertainty to the Sino-US negotiations. So, the most important thing next is how the two sides manage the situation and prevent it from continuing to escalate.
China's response is likely to be condemned after the United States has taken action, or to take necessary countermeasures. For Trump, he also needs a trade agreement, as seeking trade balance has always been part of his campaign promise. What I am most worried about is that the two sides have gone further and further on the opposite path, because China and the United States have domestic political constraints.
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