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Editor's Note: Carlos Alberto Montaner is a writer and political analyst at CNN. His columns are published in dozens of newspapers in Spain, the United States and Latin America. Montaner is also vice president of the Liberal International.
(CNN Spanish) - The Democratic congressmen, with the approval of some Republicans, have decided to try to revoke the mandate to the president of the United States, Donald Trump, through a process that in this country is called "impeachment" or political trial.
As it is a nation of laws, there must be a formal accusation adjusted to law. The House of Representatives filed two alleged violations of the law by Trump, although he vehemently denies it: obstruction of Congress and abuse of power.
The procedure is still curious: the House of Representatives approves the trial and the Senate must carry it out. As the House is a Democratic majority approved, but the Senate is a Republican majority, and two-thirds of the senators would be needed to achieve it. It is presumed that the 'impeachment' against Trump will not be achieved and he will be acquitted.
- MIRA: What are the political trial charges?
Why do Democrats engage in a battle destined to fail? Because the objective is not to revoke the President's mandate, but to weaken it against the independents, which is the nation's largest political group.
In November 2019, Gallup found that 31% of Americans declared themselves "democratic", 30 "republican" and 38 "independent."
It is already known that the 'trumpistas' hardly change sides, while the 'antitrumpistas' deny salt and water to the president, but it is presumed that the November 2020 elections will be decided by the vote of the independents, and these are going to have a constant supply of 'anti-Trump' information that will devastate his prestige.
- READ: Trump attacks the facts to survive the political trial against him
In any case, the outcome of the elections will depend on many factors apart from the impeachment or political trial process. It will depend, in the first place, on the Democratic presidential candidate that emerges from the primaries, on the course of the economy in this approaching 2020, and on the skill of the campaign strategists.
When we are closer, a more accurate forecast can be made. Today is impossible.
impeachment Political Judgment to Donald Trump