United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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Late on the evening of this December 12, Boris Johnson publishes a picture on Twitter. The Premier is pointing his left thumb upwards. Next to him are workers, one of the men carries a sign saying: "We love Boris." Johnson thanks his supporters, he writes, "We live in the greatest democracy in the world."
Thank you to everyone across our great country who voted, who volunteered, who stood as a candidate. We live in the greatest democracy in the world. pic.twitter.com/1MuEMXqWHq
- Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 12, 2019The prognosis for a truly historic election is barely half an hour old. But the result is so clear that even with caution with the not always reliable UK polls, it's clear that the Tories have won this parliamentary election. And it will be a landslide victory. Johnson, not well known for modesty anyway, sees no reason for restraint.
Parliamentary Election in the UK
Extrapolation 7:35 am (seats in parliament)
NI = Northern Ireland; Source: BBC
Gains of more than 50 seats are predicted by the post-election poll for the Conservatives, while the opposition Labor party is slumping dramatically. In the night and in the morning, as the results from the constituencies begin to roll in, this picture is confirmed. Johnson's Tories are clearly ahead. After more than two years of minority government, they will once again have power alone. It is a decision with serious consequences - for the parties, for the United Kingdom, for Europe. Four lessons.
Lesson 1: Populism wins
Since assuming the role of Tory chief and prime minister in July, Johnson has used tactics that would have been unlikely in normal times in London. It was a strategy of radical populism, apparently invented by the highly controversial Brexit mastermind Dominic Cummings, Johnson's chief adviser in Downing Street.
The goal was always new elections, which should confirm Johnson and procure him a clear majority in the fragmented lower house. Right from the start, the PM and his team have switched to a reckless campaign mode. The calculus: Johnson wanted to stage the Tories as a steadfast Brexit party against a supposed establishment, while the opposition parties in the left and pro-European camps are grinding.
Johnson accepted the split in his party. He ejected deserving Ministers from the Cabinet and later more than 20 Tories who did not want to join his course, from the faction. He aggressively attacked the lower house and even the courts, accepting that confidence in democratic institutions continued to crumble. And he hooked the Queen to his cause by unlawfully letting parliament dissolve. The result of this election shows: the tactic has worked out.
Teaching 2: The Brexit is coming
The Brexit debates lasted so long because there was no majority in Britain's House of Commons: not for the radical EU haters, not for those who want a soft exit, not for those who want Brexit would like to cancel. The Tories could only govern with the support of the Northern Irish DUP - and were in conflict. Likewise Labor.
But the days of unclear circumstances are over now. Johnson's majority is probably so comfortable in the future that he can afford himself a lot of dissenters. This also means that the way for Brexit is free. Johnson had stopped the legislative process that would transfer his EU-negotiated Brexit agreement into British law in the fall. He did not want to accept that the deputies change the deal and redirect at Brexit. This danger is now banned for him. It is quite possible that the prime minister will whip the deal through Parliament before Christmas. The new exit date was set for January 31st - it is now very likely that the British will actually leave the EU.
The question is, how does it continue? Johnson will want to arrange a free trade agreement with Brussels as soon as possible. However, it is also possible that he will present himself more moderately from now on. Because after this election, he must take less consideration - not even on the right-wing conservative hardliner wing of his party.
Isabel Infantes / AFP
Leaving his polling station, Jeremy Corbyn: The fact that the Labor leader was able to defend his own seat is still the best news for him after this night
Lesson 3: The end of the Corbyn era
In 2017, he was still the great hero, the hope of a left-wing mass movement - now the end for Jeremy Corbyn nearing the top of the Labor. During the night he declared that he would not lead the party into another election. Everything else will now be clarified.
It's clear: one of the most memorable chapters in recent Labor history is over. Corbyn had led the party to a left turn and a departure from the economic liberal line of the Blair years. At the same time, thousands of left-wing activists have streamed into the party under him - and have changed the face of the base.
However, Corbyn also stood for a course for Brexit, which gave him equal competition on two sides: The Proeuropeans made Liberals and Greens more consistent offers, while Labor, especially in its traditional working-class strongholds, where there are many Brexit advocates, voters at Johnsons Tories lost. To all this came the persistent theme of anti-Semitism, which the opposition leader in his party never got to grips with. Labor is now collecting the worst result in decades.
Corbyn has become a problem for Labor, also because almost the assembled British press has literally shot at the Altlinken. With another, less polarizing candidate, many party members believe Johnson could have been beaten. Labor is now facing a power struggle. And the question of which direction the party will take in the future is again open.
Andy Buchanan / AFP
Scotland's Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon: She had cause for joy - and should now again massively drumming for a referendum on independence
Lesson 4: The unity of the kingdom is crumbling
In addition to the Tories, there is a second big winner in this election: the Scottish SNP. The Scottish separatists, clear Brexit opponents, are expected to get most of the 59 seats in the north. Thus, their calls for a second referendum on independence should become significantly louder again in the future . Sharp conflicts with London are programmed. Because to hold such a referendum, Edinburgh requires the approval of the government in Westminster. The Tories, however, vehemently reject a referendum.
But in Northern Ireland too, the balance of power is shifting in favor of the separatists. The probational national conservatives of the DUP probably lose several seats to politicians who are in favor of uniting the country with Ireland. Particularly painful for Johnson's previous partner: Nigel Dodds, party member and DUP chief in the lower house, fails in his constituency.