There have been many Brexit appointments. For a long time, the British were certain to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. As you know, nothing came of it. Then there was talk of April 12, May 22, June 30. Finally, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was elected in the summer, announced that they would leave on October 31 - no matter what.
Now the British are always EU members. But after the historic parliamentary election last Thursday, the likelihood is higher than it will be on the new departure date, January 31, that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union.
Because if the parliament meets again shortly, something will be different in the lower house. In the place where various groups and factions have irreconcilably faced each other for years, at which no way out of the Brexit mess seemed to be majority, there will be clear conditions in the future.
Johnson's Tories now has 365 seats. The Labor opposition, on the other hand, has shrunk to 203 MPs. Overall, the government is far above the absolute majority with 39 votes.
Resistance broken
The result: Johnson can rule alone in the future. Even without the help of the Northern Irish DUP, on which the Tories in their minority government were ultimately dependent. Even dozens of dissenters from their own party could no longer get in the way of the prime minister. That changes everything for the Brexit dispute.
As soon as it became concrete, the different camps had always got stuck when leaving the EU. Johnson's predecessor Theresa May failed three times with her exit agreement negotiated with Brussels in the House of Commons. Johnson only reached the second hurdle in the ratification process. But when Parliament was to rush to pour its treaties into British law, pro-MEPs announced resistance again. Johnson withdrew the legislative package.
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Now the prime minister should try again as soon as possible. The new cabinet is said to meet on December 17 for the first time. Two days later, the Queen could open the next parliamentary session with her mandatory speech. The following day, December 20, MEPs could discuss the Brexit law at second reading.
By the end of January, the Parliament in London and the MEPs in Brussels must have approved. Not much time for such a complex deal. But there are hardly any serious doubts that Johnson could still fail with his new majority.
30 days for new plans
The decisive factor will now be what happens afterwards. After all, the British face the most difficult negotiations with the EU after the formal exit. The government then has 30 days to make a statement as to how it envisages future relations with the EU. There have already been talks on this, the outcome of which was recorded in the non-binding political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement. But in the end, the British have to sign a watertight free trade agreement with Brussels. A mammoth project that, according to experts, should actually take years.
General election in the UK
All constituencies counted (seats in parliament)
NI = Northern Ireland; Source: BBC
However, the transition phase, which Britain is supposed to tie to the EU after the Brexit on January 31 to prevent chaos from escaping, will end at the end of 2020. It is hard to imagine that Johnson could avoid an extension of this period. Especially since the talks are likely to be tricky despite a new majority in Westminister. For example, the planned special status for Northern Ireland in future trade relations has also angered many Tories in the Kingdom. The question of how the controls in the Irish Sea are to be concretely harbors political explosives.
Split country
In addition: Even if the situation in Parliament is now orderly - Johnson is still dealing with a deeply divided country. What is more, the unity of the kingdom is more fragile than ever.
The separatist and pro-European SNP has achieved a landslide victory in Scotland. Johnson's Brexit course is not well received in the north - and should now give the independence movement there new impetus. SNP chief Nicola Sturgeon has already said that there is now "a mandate to offer the Scottish people a decision about our own future". What she means: a second referendum on the separation of Scotland from the kingdom.
In Northern Ireland, too, those republican forces that pushed for unification with Ireland, which belongs to the EU, now triumphed - while the probitical DUP suffered defeats. Polls have already shown that the separatists in Northern Ireland could win a majority in a possible vote.
So far, Johnson has vehemently rejected any calls for independence speakers. The question is how long after the recent election results he can ignore the charged mood in Scotland and Northern Ireland.