Security system frustration: Third elections will hurt strategic processes

The transition government that continues to run due to the political crisis will soon be required to decide on a range of security issues, ranging from procurement plans to countering Iran's attempts to establish itself in Syria. Ahead of a possible series in the Gaza Strip, there is concern that the government will refrain from transferring benefits to Hamas during an election period, thus failing to make contacts

Security system frustration: Third elections will hurt strategic processes

In the background of the third election campaign and the tensions it brings with it, not only on the Israeli side but also on the Palestinian side, very soon the central security dilemmas of the transition government will be floated, which will be required to make a series of significant decisions. Starting with the IDF budget and the security system, purchasing heavy helicopters, refueling and fighter jets, power building such as shortening service and manpower cuts, long-term processes, reorganization planned by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, and policy on Iranian affairs in Syria and the future of the Gaza Strip.

The rockets will force the government to question whether to advance the regulatory process led by Meir Ben Shabbat's National Security headquarters and benefits to the Hamas government either from time to time or by increasing the rate and scope of attacks against any rocket launching and violation of the border. In both situations, politicians may bump into the transition government for awarding awards to the Hamas government or for deteriorating the security situation for election purposes. This is what it will look like when there is a quarrel over every voice.

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He would not like to sum up his tenure. Stars (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi during the Ben Gurion State Memorial Ceremony, Sde Boker December 4, 2019 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

The atmosphere in the security system is negative in the face of the situation and creates great frustration because of the inability to make decisions about long-term processes. The chief of staff who holds revolutionary plans for the future of the IDF would not want to conclude his first year in office. As if that were not enough, the politicians continue to launch spins and mixes in a way that shakes stability in the various arenas.

But before moving on to the new civilian year and trying to look at the challenges in the most bubbly and explosive arena that could arise every Friday with the opening of violent demonstrations on the fence, we must look at what the political echelons, National Security, IDF and ISA headquarters have achieved in the past year. War rejection, a security reality that allows a focus on the northern arena and Iran that finances, directs and launches terror against Israel, the cessation of kite terror, the cessation of arson by balloons that have burned tens of thousands of dunams in the western Negev. These include the cessation of "confusion units" that operated at night along the border of the Gaza Strip that damaged the military infrastructure, threatened the IDF's life and damaged the quality of civilian life, emphasizing the children who did not fall asleep at night, the flotilla of various European countries to the Gaza coast and riots of thousands of Palestinians off the coast. All these did not just disappear.

Hamas in isolation, residents demand peace

After much discussion and deliberation among the political echelons, the National Security Staff and the heads of the defense establishment decided to provide, in exchange for the relative quiet of the Gaza Strip, better electricity conditions than before, aid for Palestinian needy, and expansion of the fishing area. Security officials emphasized everything that could not be at the expense of Israel but with foreign funding like the Qatari and other countries under effective supervision. These are the millions of dollars suitcases that triggered waves of criticism that flooded Jerusalem but the results on the ground are spoken for themselves. A senior officer in the headquarters said as criticism of the political echelons intensified, "As long as the money comes directly to civilians and especially to the needy and not to the Hamas military, I have no problem with that. We have an interest in waging war in Gaza at this time and preventing a humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip."

In recent months, intelligence has focused on the Islamic Jihad senior in the Gaza Strip in Baha'u al-'Ata and has defined him as the inhibitor of the regularization process and therefore targeted his counterterrorism. But the following weeks revealed that there were rioters entering the space he had left and launching rockets using the "drip" method toward the western Negev. As a result, a wave of public criticism arose against the political and military echelons. Before examining the way in which the Gaza Strip can be handled, one must look at half the full glass and clarify the strategic achievements they have made to foster the national security headquarters and the heads of the security system with pity: Hamas is portrayed in the eyes of the Palestinian public, including a failed government that cannot truly manage the Gaza Strip on its own and in need. Outside support includes Israeli assistance, otherwise he would not turn to the regularization process led by Meir Ben-Shabbat but exert pressure through terrorist attacks.

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Traffic does not receive the ratio it received in the previous decade. Hamas fighters in Gaza (Photo: Reuters)

Hamas fighters pray during a military display against Israel in the southern Gaza Strip on November 11, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

The Hamas movement is in political isolation, relative to the Sunni world, and does not accept the attitude it received in the previous decade from Arab countries in the Middle East or Europe. The pressure exerted on him by the United States also bears fruit. Equally interesting is the fact that Hamas became a regional influencer when he was head of the Khaled Mashaal political bureau, initiating wide-ranging processes as a renowned leader and a status for a strong organization and nothing more. In the efforts of the ISA and the IDF, they also managed to thwart the establishment of military-organized infrastructures in Judea and Samaria, for which Hamas leaders hoped and thwarted hundreds of terrorist attacks last year. To understand the extent to which Hamas was at a low level and its plight recently, the Hamas leadership agreed to share civil responsibility with the PA.

To the people of the western Negev who suffer rocket launches even after senior Islamic Jihad's assassination of Bahu Abu Al-Ata, life looks different and they demand peace and have no intention of giving up. When the State of Israel is in an election campaign, their specific weight is rising in the eyes of the statesmen, which may tip the ball in favor of particularly aggressive moves and striving to change the equation against Hamas that does not at this stage stop the insurgents from launching rockets. This seam will be played by politicians from across the spectrum. The mayors, localities and councils that demand more budgets from the state, even though the transition government hands are tied.

If the current situation in the Gaza Strip continues, the political echelon and the heads of the defense establishment will have to decide whether they are going to block or start rooting in Gaza.

Delaying effort

It is impossible to analyze the Gaza Strip without looking farther and farther in the 1,500 km range. The Iranians have moved from concentration areas to conference areas and then to preparatory areas, as was the custom of the Minister of Immigration and Absorption and Political-Security Cabinet Member (res.) Yoav Galant. Iran's Arsenal Arms have been part of Syria aimed at the back of Israel, the first and immediate Iranian threat of its kind, and the future is an effort that is currently on hold: the nuclear project.

To understand the extent of the threat, the Iranians have demonstrated over the past year that despite their economic and sanctions, including political pressure, they possess courage, accurate intelligence and precise means, their very advanced technological development system, command and control, and a steady improvement in military capability. Carefully and wisely chosen.

Leads the regulation process. Shabbat (Photo: Olivier Pitusi, Haaretz)

Meir Ben Shabbat (Photo: Olivier Fitusi, Haaretz News, Official Website)

Although the threats from Tehran sound from morning to evening, Israel has not really hit the Revolutionary Guards' power building over the years, preferring to keep track of the development of the Iranian octopus, improve intelligence capabilities, upgrade the air force and prepare for an Iranian attack with various types of active defense batteries.

There are thoughts within the defense establishment that it is time to treat Iran like it has not in recent years due to a collection of recent events and processes that include the Iranian pressure cooker, Iran's deteriorating economic situation, mass protests across the country against the Ayatollah regime, the effect of the thousand Iranian protesters, Iran's crumbling Iranian hold and growing criticism of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon. Iran's occupation is right and much needed these days, especially in light of foreign publications about the Iranian-brewing stew against Israel and other Middle East targets, but in light of the security and economic situation of the Gaza Strip, Hamas will push the Jerusalem transition government to make decisions on the Palestinian issue faster than expected.

The Iranians prove their abilities. "Imam Ali" base site in Syria

Finding a tunnel excavation at the base of Imam Ali, Albukhmal, Syria (Photo: (ImageSat International - ISI), official website)

These days are reminiscent of Galant's replacement days in the Southern Command in October 2005. Days after the disengagement from Gaza. A sense of calm. On Thursday, Maj. Gen. Galant in the General Staff receives the appointment for the Southern Command and the official ceremony on Sunday. On Friday, Hamas holds a military parade in the streets and an unclear party takes place at the site of an explosion and 10 Palestinians are killed. To divert attention from the mishap, Hamas launches 15 rockets on Saturday morning. Prime Minister Eric Sharon calls Gallant and tells him: "What is it? Do you miss rockets here and you do nothing? "Galant explains to him that Dan Harel's commander is still in command of the Southern Command and that he will officially take office only on Sunday. Despite this, Galant arrives at Southern Command Camp but the soldiers at the gate do not know him and are in no hurry to enter.

The camp was almost deserted and the senior officer in the house. During those hours, Galant realized that intelligence for the purposes in the Gaza Strip is in the Tel Aviv Intelligence Division, that the Air Force's attack cells if authorized to respond to fire are in Tel Aviv, and the authority to attack from the air is in the GSS. Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Eliezer Shkedi was very open to changes and operational ideas including support for the transfer. The capabilities and powers of the Southern Command for an attack, Major General Shkedi simply wanted to win, and for the rest it involved arguments, some would say ego struggles and power.

In his view, he was at the closest point to breaking Hamas' joint. Galant (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Yoav Galant at the Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv September 18, 2019 (Photo: Reuven Castro)

A few months passed, there were discussions with General Staff and then Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, and the Southern Command began to build assault cells that knew how to hit the air with a terrorist who wanted to launch a rocket or cross the border to the Israeli side to carry out an attack or during a tunnel excavation. Dozens of terrorists were killed in the authority of the Southern Command's assault cells, with the Gaza Division commander in those years none other than Brigadier General Aviv Kochavi, later Chief of Staff.

Organizations, troops and divisions were quickly ordered: attacking ordinary terrorists with the authority of the Southern Command. Targeted thwarting by GSS and Intelligence Division officials: military infrastructure, tunnels, warehouses and weapons production sites. Three assault chambers that work as one choir. It quickly became clear what the capabilities of intelligence and fire integration with Galant's approval and push were: Gaza - The ability of the Gaza Division to detect and attack targets in real time.

The fire and intelligence systems have improved in recent years. Southern Command Fire Brigade

Southern Command Fire Brigade (Photo: IDF Spokesman)

It is only conceivable that until then there were thoughts following the end of the disengagement process and attempts to economically optimize the IDF to close the Gaza division and convert it into a brigade and the Southern Command into one with a Central Command. Galant strongly opposed the thoughts and insisted that the threats continue to increase. In his view, he was at the closest point to breaking Hamas's liquidator, but was stopped by senior IDF officials and the political echelons who were not called to hear about his plan to isolate the Palestinian city of Rafah, to cut off the Gaza Strip from Egypt and to clear the area of ​​terrorist infrastructure. Includes the idea of ​​setting up a military tribunal to judge senior terrorists in Gaza.

If you ask Galant today what he thinks he will say and miss out then a great opportunity to lower Hamas on his knees and lead him to plead for a long-term lull agreement and the situation is not so far from what is happening in the Gaza Strip today. According to Gallant's approach, a move from a position of power should be followed after Hamas cries out for a ceasefire and not in an upside where it does not really endeavor to prevent terrorists from launching rockets at Israel. The views of the defense establishment are divided. Is the outline created very likely to Hamas series? Or the fact that Israel does not necessarily come from a position of power and the reality that Hamas does not feel a sword on its neck will lead it to blow out the nascent regulation in the foreseeable range when it is comfortable. Galant recently said in a limited forum: "Sooner or later we will have to make a significant round with Hamas in order to open conditions in the arrangement from a position of power. I know Hamas from its inception."

Hamas authorities showing Qatar dollars (Photo: Reuters)

Hamas authorities showing dollar after receiving Qatar salary paid in Gaza, December 7, 2018 (Photo: Reuters)

The Southern Command has shown that the fire and intelligence systems have been improved since 2005 and in a black belt operation, the assault cells managed to kill about twenty terrorists and attack a hundred targets for two days. A most impressive fire pace, with the exception of the incident in Deir al-Balah, during which an entire Palestinian family was killed in a building marked as a military target and still being investigated. In accordance with the exact capabilities of the Southern Command in particular and the IDF in general in 2019 in the connection between the fire and the intelligence and the logic behind the target bank, the political echelon and the heads of the defense establishment will have to decide whether they will continue the rocket launches through economic benefits, conduct negotiations on the series and periodically attack, Through targeted treatment at the ropes or at the exit of the campaign, there is no choice but to go to the polls in the third round of the election campaign.