After all, Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon are still talking to each other. But they don't have much to say. The fronts are clear, even when the British Prime Minister and his currently most important opponent are on the phone on Friday.
Johnson has made it clear to the Scottish head of government "that he is against a second independence referendum," his spokesman later reports. Sturgeon counters on Twitter: "And I made it clear that the SNP's mandate to give people the choice must be respected."
On Sunday, she added in a BBC program: Scotland could not "be held against its will in the United Kingdom." And: If London ignored the autonomy wishes in the north, it would be a "perversion" of democracy.
Paradoxical location
Johnson and his Tories landed a landslide victory in the general election. But the triumph puts the government in London in a paradoxical situation: while it ensures orderly conditions in Westminster, it deepens the division in the United Kingdom.
The Conservatives largely owe their victory to their good results in England. Especially in the north, however, many people find Johnson like a provocation. There Sturgeon and their separatist party SNP have marginalized the Tories. The SNP won 45 percent of the vote - in the Westminister Parliament they will now provide 48 of 59 Scottish seats - 13 more than after the previous election.
It was obviously also a vote against London, against the Tories, against Brexit.
Many Scots consider their membership of the United Kingdom a compulsory community. They are proud of their own language, their own culture. Compared to England, there is a liberal zeitgeist in Scotland. The SNP describes itself as nationalistic. However, from a socio-political standpoint, it is on the left; it is based on an ecological program and a migration-friendly course. The majority of the Scots reject Brexit. At the 2016 referendum, 62 percent voted to stay in the EU in the north.
Chance of secession?
Now that there is a man in London who has made it to the top with anti-European slogans and the support of right-wing right-wingers, the independence fighters see the opportunity to secede from the kingdom. It would be her second attempt after 2014: a second referendum.
At that time, they had barely failed. In a dramatic election campaign, polls at times indicated a majority for Scottish independence. In the end, however, 55.3 percent voted against.
At that time, Sturgeon was already a leading voice among the separatists as an SNP vice. After the referendum, she took over the party chairmanship and also the office of "First Minister", the head of the regional government. Now she wants to know it again. After the parliamentary election last week, the 49-year-old lawyer announced a formal application for a new independence referendum.
2020 referendum?
Sturgeon believes the signs have changed. In 2014, many Scots voted in favor of remaining in the kingdom because an independent Scotland would have automatically flown out of the EU. It is now clear that Britain as a whole is leaving the European Union. Scotland, in turn, as an independent country, would hold talks with Brussels as soon as possible about a resumption. According to the will of the SNP, the Scots should be allowed to vote on their independence in 2020 or at the latest in 2021.
The big problem for the separatists: For a independence referendum, the Scottish regional government needs permission from the West Minister. And Johnson has not even thought of giving the Scots a single hand again. The result of 2014 was finally clear, it says from Downing Street narrow-lipped.
Sturgeon has again ruled out an illegal referendum like in Catalonia. Instead, she wants to explain briefly how she wants to democratically secure her government's decision-making powers through a referendum.
Trouble for Johnson
Even if it is difficult to predict how this will work, Sturgeon can cause Johnson serious problems. In the past, she has proven to be a stubborn idealist who can set the mood and win majorities. The daughter of an electrician and a dental assistant joined the party when she was 16, and was elected to the then young Parliament in Edinburgh in 1999 - at the age of 29. In 2015, it led the SNP to its greatest triumph: in the Westminister elections, the party won 50 percent in Scotland and won in almost all constituencies.
The question now is how long Johnson can ignore the displeasure in the north. At the latest when Sturgeon and her people triumph in the next regional elections in 2021, a new constitutional crisis threatens in the Kingdom.
It is therefore expected that after the Brexit on January 31, the prime minister will change the tone - and give the Scots a charm offensive. And it is not out of the question that such a strategy could work. Because the mood in the north fluctuates. Once, immediately after the Brexit referendum in 2016, people in Scotland took to the streets for a second referendum on independence. But the government hesitated - with good reason. Polls suggested that she would also lose this vote. Until the recent elections, the situation was little different.
It is quite conceivable that this will change now. However, the separatists will probably have to hurry and seize the moment - as long as the shock of Johnson's triumph is still deep. In the summer, in the middle of the Tory election campaign, Sturgeon described in SPIEGEL the thought of a Prime Minister Johnson as a "horror performance". The decisive factor will be how long your compatriots feel about it. Or whether the anger evaporates at some point.