UBS raises China's economic forecast for next year to 6%

Financial news

Written by: Zhai Ziqian

2019-12-16 13:50

UBS released a review and outlook for the investment banking market in 2019. With China and the US reaching the first phase of the trade agreement, UBS raised China's GDP growth from 5.7% to 6% next year.

Jin Hongyi, managing director of UBS and head of the Asia-Pacific investment bank, said that he is cautiously optimistic about the investment market in 2020. Among them, China continues to reform and open up and relax restrictions on foreign ownership. Economic company development has greater support. He added that the size of private equity funds or national sovereign funds in the market is very large, and more relevant financing activities can be noted in the future.

Huang Peihao, head of the Asian region of UBS's equity capital market, said that the amount of fundraising in Hong Kong's IPO market this year has increased compared to 2018, mainly benefiting from the listing activities of Alibaba (09988). The year fell.

Expected stocks come to Hong Kong for listing

Huang Peihao pointed out that with the second listing of Alibaba in Hong Kong, I believe that more companies will follow in the future, and that domestic trading of U.S. stocks may be inconvenient, plus the differences in regions and trading hours. Fund managers can benefit.

Wang Ran, head of the UBS China Bond Capital Markets Department, said that the scale of real estate issuance in 2019 has increased significantly year-on-year, and it is expected that it will fall from a high point in 2020.

Regarding recent reports that the Chinese government intends to support Macau's development as a financial center, Wang Ran believes that Macau has the opportunity to become an offshore RMB settlement center and believes that the bond market can develop steadily.

Optimistic about the prospects of the new service industry

Regarding the Chinese economy, Jin Hongyi said that China's past export of cheap products needs to be transformed. It is believed that domestic transformation will continue in 2020. Therefore, it is optimistic about new economic companies or new service industries, such as property management and high-end medical care.

In Hong Kong's market, Jin Hongyi said that although Hong Kong has experienced major social events, the stock market and bond market have not been affected. He emphasized that these factors are not invisible when he closes his eyes, but believes that as long as Hong Kong maintains its advantages and various mechanisms are good, Hong Kong will continue to be stable in the future. UBS expects the Hang Seng Index to target 28,700 points next year; the CSI 300 Index will hit 4,400 points.

Economic researcher: China's potential economic growth rate is still above 8%

[China Economy] National Bureau of Statistics: Conditionally Achieve Annual Growth Targets

China's economic growth rate should not be maintained at 6%

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