Political-security leaders are aware of the apparent lack of logic in conducting the Gaza Strip, but prefer to set the policy according to the broad picture.
Gaza rocket fire, Qassem Suleimani and Islamic Jihad terrorists // Photo: AP
Israel was not surprised by the rockets launch Friday night to Sderot. For several weeks now, it has been widely believed in the security system that Islamic Jihad is on hold and is looking for an excuse to act.
In light of this explosion, Israel refrained from giving the organization the excuse it was looking for. In recent weeks the strap has been treated with silk gloves. Commodities and fishing were in order, in extended format. Qatari money went into Gaza last week, and regular talks also continued. Even the Friday rally on the fence was relatively calm the other day, and the reasoning for sympathizing with the violation of Iranian patron - which was the cause of a previous jihadist violence in September - was not in the background this time, as Israel was prevented from attacks in Syria last month as part of a situation assessment. A wide-ranging issue currently underway on the Iranian issue.
Following the rocket fire to the south: IDF attacked in the Gaza Strip
The reason for the shooting seems to be rooted in the intensive struggle between Islamic Jihad and Hamas, which groaned under the burden of government and the aggravated civil-economic situation in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli public is not aware of this, but Gaza is on the verge of collapse. Residents are in despair, unemployment is rising, infrastructure is not up to par. Hamas is trying to improve the situation in the way of the series, fearing that war will lead to the collapse of its rule. This requires him to refrain from proactive military activity, and into this vacuum comes the Islamic Jihad, in the absence of free government responsibility to do as he pleases - just as Hezbollah did for many years in Lebanon.
It's not just Iran
The thought that Jihad operates under direct Iranian guidance is too simplistic. The leaders of the organization in Gaza are Palestinian patriots, and will not rush to demolish the strip for anyone else. In any case, they do not need Tehran to want to fight; there is no lack of brains in Gaza looking for a confrontation, most notably Baha Abu al-Ata, the organization's northern commander. Baha has become a celeb for Israel in recent months. His name is heard regularly in the security briefings, a frequency that was previously reserved only for Kassem Suleimani and Hassan Nasrallah. This is a marked exaggeration that Israel is directly responsible for; At the end of the day, it's a local leader of a medium-sized organization. It is not important enough for Israel to build its security policy around it.
In any case, it is doubtful that Baha is also seeking war for fear that it will wreak havoc on the Strip. Israel will not be able to fight Gaza with half a clutch. Faced with missile rockets and rockets being launched, massive military pressure will be applied to Gaza, which could lead to the collapse of Hamas rule. The result could be renewed Israeli rule over 2 million Gazans, or anarchy ("reality as in Somalia," the head of the research division, Brig. Gen. Dror Shalom, said in an interview he gave to Israel today in Rosh Hashanah).
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In Israel, they want to avoid this. As in the past, most IDF attacks yesterday were aimed at Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, to spur it to curb jihad. The chances of success of this move are large in the short term, and small in the beyond. In the absence of a fundamental change in the situation in Gaza - and no progress in the regular talks - The pendulum is clearly moving in the direction of escalation.
Likely, in the foreseeable future, Israel will seek to hold Gaza on a small fire. Political-security leaders are aware of public criticism and the lack of logic that a small organization sets the agenda for a country that is stronger than it is, but is currently listening fully to the north-east - to the axis connecting Iran to Lebanon, through Iraq and Syria, against solid estimates between future Israelis. Iran will be more violent than before, and have a much greater potential for deterioration.
Israel is back in action
This is not good news for the residents of the envelope, but it is not the end of a verse. In the long run, Israel will not be able to avoid a real deal with the Gaza issue in one of two ways: walking to a series that will lead to a long-term ceasefire, but requiring simple prices on both sides, or a broad campaign that will also have considerable prices and risks.
Israel would do well if it came to this campaign soberly and orderly. On the eve of the last election - after the rockets interrupted a meeting of Prime Minister Netanyahu in Ashdod - a massive Israeli response was hampered only by a lack of operational feasibility and the intervention of legal advisers. Israel then proceeded from the stomach, in impulse, contrary to its clear policy in Gaza. Last weekend, she was back in action.