Financial news
Written by: Huang Youhua
2019-12-18 17:06
Last updated: 2019-12-18 17:08The outlook for Hong Kong's trade is not optimistic. The Hong Kong Trade Development Council forecasts that Hong Kong's overall export value will shrink by 2% next year. At the same time, an export value index survey conducted in mid-November was released. The survey showed that the export value hit a record low of only 18.8, which was 3.5 points lower than the previous record of 22.3 points in the fourth quarter of 2008, reflecting the bearish outlook of Hong Kong companies. Hong Kong Trade Development Council research director Guan Jiaming pointed out that the global economic slowdown and trade frictions continue to affect Hong Kong's exports, and the further spread of protectionism has also increased the risk of continued global economic weakness.
According to the TDC, Hong Kong's export performance continued to be weak due to the sluggish global demand and the unresolved impact of Sino-US trade frictions. In the first 10 months of this year, the total value of exports fell by 5.1% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of export markets, Hong Kong ’s exports to the United States fell the most, reaching 13.2%, while exports to the European Union and the Mainland fell by 4% and 6%, respectively. However, according to the TDC, the decline in Hong Kong is not particularly serious compared with the neighboring regions, because the exports of neighboring Singapore, Japan and South Korea fell by 6.1%, 5.2% and 10.7%, respectively.
However, among the exports of major industries, the import of precious jewellery still maintained an increase of 10.7%. The export of electrical appliances also increased by 5.5%
Zeng Shiyun, assistant chief economist for the Greater China Region of the HKTDC, said that the continued Sino-US trade friction has adversely affected 56.5% of Hong Kong business. (Profile picture)
Hong Kong companies killed in trade war
Zeng Shiyun, Assistant Chief Economist for the Greater China Region of HKTDC, said that the fourth-quarter export indices of Hong Kong's major industries were all well below the 50-point line. Among them, the electronics and watch industries fell the most, falling to 18.2 and 15.5, The worst level on record, showing that exporters are becoming less optimistic about the outlook.
However, in each export market, Hong Kong companies interviewed by Japan are bullish, with an index of 47.4. Mainland China and the United States followed closely behind, while the EU recorded a 40.1 fall of 4.5 to 36.8.
She also explained that the trade friction between China and the United States has adversely affected the 56.5% of Hong Kong businessmen interviewed. In addition to the decline in orders, more Hong Kong companies have been depressed. The data has increased by 58.1% from the previous quarter's 44.1%.
Guan Jiaming: Manufacturers Don't Forget to Improve Their Competitiveness
According to the TDC, under the haze of Sino-U.S. Trade frictions, manufacturers set up production bases in East Africa this year, including Ethiopia and Kenya. It is believed to be affected by factors such as the large local labor force, the rapid development of light industry, and the growing consumer market. Guan Jiaming, research director of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, suggests that in addition to moving factory hardware to new locations, manufacturers should focus on improving self-competitiveness and attracting new customers.
He also reminded that the Sino-US trade war may continue, and may even affect financial and non-economic levels, or indirectly impact the foreign trade environment. The industry and the government need more ways to respond.
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