Iran is still determined to be based in Syria, and Israel will not sit back • Those who do not want to meet an upgraded Hezbollah should act • And this scenario heralds a significant increase in the likelihood of fighting in the north

The quiet in the north may be misleading. Seemingly, he can understand that something has calmed down in the clash between Iran and Israel in recent years, especially on Syrian soil. One is determined to be based in Syria, and to threaten Israel. The other is determined to prevent it.

It is no secret that in recent months there has been a decline in this activity - a rifle, from the Israeli side. This happened after a sequence of events initiated by Iran in the Gulf, the most notable of which was the cruise missile and suicide bombing attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil industry. The fact that this event (like its predecessors) went unanswered raised Iran's boldness. In Israel, it was estimated that from now on, it would respond to any Israeli assault on Iran, its affiliates or interests in space.

Iran, unlike Israel, did not stop. Despite the economic crisis, the apparent disapproval of Russia and Syria, and the military blows it sustained, it continues to mature. One can conclude from this quite a bit about the chances of persuading her to abandon the idea of ​​establishing itself in the space between Iraq and Lebanon. In essence: This is a mission that is great on Israel's dimensions. Without an agreement of my own, the chance of that happening is slim.

Higher risk taking is needed than before. Golan Heights armored forces last month // Photo: Eyal Margolin - Ginny

But Israel certainly (and intends) not to sit back. Anyone who does not want to meet Hezbollah in an upgraded and nervous edition in Syria should act before this kettle becomes a locomotive equipped with advanced and accurate military. This is what the IDF has been doing intensively in recent years, and judging by the words of the defense minister and chief of staff on their visit to the Golan Heights That is also intended to convey a clear message of readiness for war - that is also what Israel will continue to do in the near future.

The Iranian response is on the way

Of course, there will be those who tie it to the election, claiming that everything is a political exercise. That's not the case. Anyone who knows the details - both in the coalition and in the opposition, and certainly in the defense establishment - knows that this is not the kind of thing you can wait with after the elections. Even so, the response that Israel gives him is partial, and if already (such as senior security officials this week) the discussion should be that more activity is needed, including taking higher risks than before.

The meaning is clear: the risk of an Iranian response. So far, Iran has shown a fairly low operational threshold in its response to Israel, which has been all thwarted or disrupted. No one is infallible; The attack in Saudi Arabia shows that Iran has the ability to hurt, and to hurt. It is true that Israel is not Saudi Arabia, and its deterrence vis-à-vis Tehran is different, but it is wrong for those who think Qassim Slimani to sit aside and applaud the Israeli activity. The response will come.

This scenario foreshadows a significant increase in the likelihood of fighting in the north. Fighting, and not necessarily war. Battle days that may develop from an Israeli attack, and an Iranian response that follows, and could end as a local event, or roll on - to broader escalation.

It is also likely to be the scenario that will be the focus of the annual 2020 Intelligence Assessment, which will be presented to commanders next month, and include quite a few question marks, including: What will happen between Iran and the US regarding the nuclear and sanctions issue, what role will Russia play, whether the Gulf states Stay on the side of hostile Tehran or approach it to defend itself, what will happen to the popular protests that have developed over the past two months in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, and on matters closer to us - whether Gaza will advance towards the series or precisely escalation, when and if elections are held in the Palestinian Authority and whether It will also survive 2020, to what extent and in what way it will hold the peace agreement with Jordan, and now .

Direct communication with Putin

Quite a few of these question marks appear in the 2020 Forecast published by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security this week. The institute, whose chief investigator is Maj. Gen. (res.) Jacob Amidror, former chief of national security, points to a significant challenge that Israel may face if Iran decides to continue to accumulate fissile material (in favor of nuclear bomb production). This will require Israel to prepare for military service independently - whose chances will increase in the second half of next year - in a situation where it is unclear whether and how much it will receive assistance from the US, which will be in election year.

At the same time, Israel must also prepare for the opposite possibility: there will be closer ties between the US and Iran, and the nuclear talks will resume. Iran's demands. "

In the meantime, Iran's economic hardship is expected to worsen, and with it, domestic protests. Iran's internal political struggle between conservatives and reformists will also intensify, ahead of the February parliamentary elections. The forecasters expect that as long as the current crisis continues and Iran does not return to the negotiating table, it will continue to take "provocative power moves" on the part of the Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force, which may also escalate the Israeli-Iranian campaign in Syria to a wide-ranging confrontation.

Such a script would not necessarily be convenient for Syria and Hezbollah. The outlook indicates a growing stability in Syria that is in the late civil war and in the midst of a trend to reestablish an effective central government, in the face of growing instability in Lebanon that may strengthen Hizbullah but also restrict its military freedom of action.

In the aggravated scenario, Israel will be required to prepare for a pre-war against Hezbollah, but there are more likely scenarios, most notably the possibility that Russia will act actively to proclaim Israel's freedom of action in Syria. To avoid this, Israel will be required to maintain continuous talks with Moscow in general, and with President Putin in particular - a complicated task in itself.

Most of these issues are still on the table today, in any situation assessment, and certainly in those engaged in proactive activities in the north. Israel has no choice but to act, but it must do so with open eyes and in the face of reality, including the dangers inherent in it, and most importantly - reduce speech, especially during the election period where the essential may also be considered political.

When the Secretary of Defense talked this week about Syria becoming Iran's Vietnam, he placed the Iranians and their dispatchers in the US role in that war. Not sure Washington would like this comparison, but that's not the point: the Vietnam War was hard for the Vietnamese themselves, who did win, But at a high cost, and this is the reality in which they fought for their own land. Not sure that Israel wants to turn Syria into its own land and fight for it. Next year, too, everything needs to be done to continue this campaign against it and, if possible, quietly.