The third round of elections in March will lead to one of two options: the "impeachment coalition" of left and right non-holding patches, or the right-wing government to run a concession-free strategy • And also: Gideon Sa'ar's pros and cons

• Again, it became clear that those against him, even to the right, would receive the traditional embrace from the media. Netanyahu at the opening ceremony of the Brazilian Ministry of Trade in Jerusalem, this week

  Photo:

  Oren Ben Hakun

On Tuesday, when Justice Minister Amir Ohana announced the appointment of Orly Ben Ari as Deputy State's Attorney, Gideon Sa'ar was quick to declare his opposition to the appointment. "I was not sure I would act like Ohana regarding the appointment," he said. Responded to it humorously: "It's like blasting a lighting bomb during a secret operation."

For a moment everything is illuminated, and storm is seen as being in the State Attorney's Office, the one Ohana and Likud are facing in a collision course. This week you could hear the mantra that is more right-wing than the prime minister. Not only Yedioth Ahronoth declared it. The day before I heard the same story from Musi Raz from Meretz. It sounds like they were handing out a page of messages in the Bibi impeachment coalition. Like a fairytale that turns, probably as part of the media's and left's involvement in the Likud's internal elections. He is more right-wing than Bibi, but all the senior commentators embrace him warmly. Another party the Likud is running against.

Sa'ar's slogan, which Netanyahu's election is a choice for the opposition and which has no chance of forming a coalition, is sparse and very problematic for an ideological popular political movement like the Likud. Dealing is about agenda and leadership competence at the national level and not the ability of a particular Knesset member to get the support of the opponents on the left, who will be willing to join him. But Sa'ar's statement reflects the change between the two previous elections and the third round in March, which one hopes will be finalized: Gantz and Lapid spokesmen make clear that they will not move from Netanyahu's personal disqualification, so voters' conclusion should be clear: no chance after the upcoming elections Unity Government.

There are only two options to get out of the political strait that was not the case in Israel. One - the right-wing coalition, even just 61 seats. The second, what might be called the "impeachment coalition"; Connecting Gantz and Torch patches together with left-wing parties, Lieberman and two other parties from the "right bloc." The left bloc, as Gantz and Lapid market it, has no chance of forming a consensual government - that is, not a minority government that relies on the joint Arab list - without the right-wing parties joining. Even if the left block that includes Lieberman today reaches 55 (69 along with Tibi and others), he will need a portion of the right to achieve the 60 and something. That is, the impeachment coalition will link Deri to Ben Shafir or Naftali Bennett and Tamar Zandberg. This is a patchwork weave that will be torn down in no time.

So only a strong right of at least 61 seats can give the State of Israel a coherent government capable of conducting a security and economic strategy without too many concessions and contradictions.

Retro conservative right

Gideon Sa'ar's advantage over Prime Minister Netanyahu lies in many areas of domestic policy. But being a founding member distances him from the ability to lead in the spirit of the people.

But the main difference between Netanyahu and the storm is that the latter is an establishment man, while Netanyahu is an independent leader who relies on the people, and does not say artist after the spirit of the establishment on any issue - especially not political-security. Saar - until proven otherwise - looks like a person from an establishment who will act in the spirit of the establishment, or if we will, the "deep state." We saw this cooperation this week when television reporter Aviad Glickman announced on the basis of "a senior Supreme Court official" who is already preparing to torpedo Ben Ari's appointment. Sa'ar acted similarly. He felt free to object to the appointment under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Justice. It is similar to Gantz, Lapid and Lieberman who scatter pardons in every way, as if they had already convicted the Prime Minister.

In 2013, Saar was given a flanking security by the media which prevented any leakage from a related affair, which the Attorney General then decided to investigate. To this day, people who were connected to the establishment ducked in the political tsunami, even when it came to rightists and nationalists. The media rewarded them, having previously bent them down: Ehud Barak, who opposed Oslo; Arik Sharon; Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert, who became leftists for everything.

As a man of the establishment of Saar he is a kind of conservative retro right. outdated. It is precisely the old and scarred Bibi, galloping in front of him in a 50-ton semitrailer truck, belonging to the present generation in the conservative current of the Western world. He is in line with Trump and Boris Johnson. The national and populist dose that embraces the throngs of the bureaucratic establishment overcomes the old conservatism that was once new: Reagan and Thatcher. For the lack of popular populist spark. People are following him because of temporary tactical calculations.

What is Saar's strength anyway: While Netanyahu is the only true national leader who is not fabricated like the indictments against him, there are areas of domestic policy where he has lost some of his reformist energy. The storm probably has a higher capacity in a given situation to bring about some internal reforms in both the bureaucracy and the justice system. The question is whether these will be reforms in the right direction. For certain reforms he has made in the past, opinions are divided. The change he introduced more than ten years ago still allowed the three judges on the Judiciary Committee to control the selection of candidates for the Supreme Court.

His stance on the rise in the law that the right wants to pass is that a majority of 65 in the Knesset will be required to repeal a law by the High Court. With the escalation of the authorities war, it seems too high. Even an absolute majority of 61 will be difficult to achieve and In a normal majority.

What he said - and where he went

After resigning as secretary of government, Zvika Hauser embarked on an attack on the justice system. Today he is already in the "judiciary" party, bureaucracy, establishment and the media

The best example of the gap between the declared position and the deed is MK Zvika Hauser from senior blue-and-white senior. Hauser is a close friend of Saar since their youth in the revival 30 years ago. He also had friends, former State Attorney Edna Arbel and Deputy Attorney General Dina Zilber He served as an assistant to the Beinisch State Attorney who became President of the Supreme Court, and later to Arbel's assistant who replaced Beinisch.

Hauser. "Responsible people have no authority, and those with no responsibility" // Photo: Coco

The idol of Hauser and Saar is a deer, not Jabotinsky. That means settlement, old Mapanicism; not a broad political strategy but a regional vision of the minority alliance. Netanyahu's view is based on the multidimensional strength of the State of Israel and its attachment to international allies. In part, it is his unique capabilities as in relations with Russian President Putin and In Trump.

Hauser gave an interview to Larry Shavit in the summer of 2013 after retiring from the post of Secretary of State. It was the best defense letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu. He identified the approaching glacier that the State of Israel now collided with: "The responsibility holders have no authority, and the holders of authority have no responsibility (Translation: High Court and Attorney General against the Prime Minister, the Ministers and the General Staff). Today, Israel is likened to a ship whose engine wings are wrapped in a thick rope that does not allow it to advance. Although the turbulent sea requires the Israeli ship to accelerate - it does so but slows down and falters. When I see this gap between the inner shuffle and the envelope of challenges we live in I'm worried. I'm not sure we are prepared for that. "

Comet commented: "You are talking about a destructive (legalization) judgment and a bureaucratic level that is restraining the captain's hands."

Hauser: "... Because there are so many filters there is no flow in the pipes and no water in the tap - a situation is created that the bureaucratic level, the legal level and the media are strong, so there is no room for ideology and common sense and the big picture ... When you fail to achieve the result ... the division between authority and responsibility does not allow the state to function. Instead of flipping chips to chop trees, we flip trees to chop chips ... the judge kills us. "

Zvika Hauser nonetheless chose to join the "judiciary" party, bureaucracy, establishment and the media. The party that he joined also opposes the heart of his eye, Basic Law: The Nation-State of the Jewish People, which he believes is Netanyahu's outstanding achievement. Saar in an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth broadcasts that he is being held, not to say held, held captive by the media. When he was the Minister of Education, every title in Haaretz removed him from his balance. He will be tested after the primaries for his ability to join Netanyahu and chip in the bureaucratic-legal iceberg.

As if they wanted to raise it to the stake

One episode was missing in "Benjamin's Time" - one that will deal in depth with the demonic attitude of the left to Netanyahu, from the time he starred in the late 1980s

In the same interview from six years ago, Ari Shavit says two statements that could be a test of the outcome at the end of 2019: "You will make us lepers like South Africa. Zionism will be buried in the hills of Judea and Samaria." In addition to a black assessment about Iran: "It is no longer possible to stop the threat that Netanyahu sees as an existential threat."

Israel of late 2019 is not a leper, but its international and economic situation is improving, and could be much better if Netanyahu continues for a few more years. And the Iranian threat in its nuclear aspect has been frozen. Israel and the US today have better capabilities than they had a few years ago to physically eliminate this threat. Iran's regime is rocking as a result of the deadly combination of sanctions and the bitter spirit that shakes the Ayatollahs in some 200 cities.

These things are also connected to the excellent Amit Segal series accompanied by brilliant commentaries by Amnon Abramovich. The first chapter dealt with the development of Netanyahu's political strategy. It is presented as a lesson learned machine. The second chapter attempted to clarify the issue of political opportunism against the ideological backbone. Is he the Queen of the Shephagat and the Flick Plaque or the Man of Steel. The state of the country right now, as if cruising on autopilot, says a lot. There are no air pocket chutes. No height loss. What is slightly hurt is the possibility of exploiting policy opportunities, but this too can receive a surprising response in the coming months.

What the series does not deal with is some kind of depth dimension of the Israeli left's attitude to Netanyahu, which is crucial. The biphobobia is more like anti-Semitism than the "retiring" exclusion. Seven years before Rabin's murder, Yossi Sarid marked him. Put it on the cross of intent. Bibi returned from the United Nations, and in the middle of 1988 was the Likud's primaries star. It produced a remnant of some outrage that later inflamed the intellectuals; It was enough for a relic to define Netanyahu as "dangerous and uninhibited."

On Netanyahu's definition of terror, he scoffed: "And Yitzhak Shamir has already agreed to this definition of wonder?" I mean, veterans of your movement saw terror as a means of a war of liberation. He then releases a threat that will continue to follow. Sarid turned his finger on some of the most senior journalists who drank his thirst at the Knesset buffet. They still hold office. He called Netanyahu "Bibi a schemin" and many other incitement words.

All of these phrases poisoned generations of "senior journalists." The last to use a phrase from Sarid's midrash was Dana Weiss. Following his election to the Likud chairman in '93, the statement read: "Netanyahu's grandfather incited against the labor movement in the Arlozorov trial." , Well before the premiership.

Netanyahu brought with him an individualistic, professional ethos, long-term strategic thinking, which was contrary to Israeli sickness and circle culture. The "group" saw him as a stranger to be brought to the stake.