The US-Iran conflict may limit Israel's efforts to operate in Iraq

The Trump administration wants to fight with Tehran without background noise from Israel, and the IDF will have to look for other avenues to counteract Iranian transfers from Iraq through Iraq. Israel is directly affected by the events in the region, and the Russians may impose similar restrictions to reduce activity to disrupt Iran's establishment in Syria

The US-Iran conflict may limit Israel's efforts to operate in Iraq

As soon as US President Donald Trump ordered a nuclear deal with Iran and imposed another harsh sanctions package on the Ayatollah regime, Quds Force under the command of Qasim Suleimani and with the approval of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei increased the pace of Middle East operations. Step by step, Iran began to carry out provocations and attacks through prominent emissaries around the oil tankers, the Saudi Aramco oil company and the overthrow of the US drone. Iran has actually built itself on the unresponsive policies of the United States and the Gulf states. Unlike Israel's offensive initiatives in the Syrian region Against Iranian establishment.

When the US retaliation was too late to deter deterrence, Iran's sense of terrorism increased. In fact, Suleimani allowed himself to be taunted in the United States because the Iranians themselves suffered attacks on the embassy and consulates in Iraq. In early November 2019, three Iraqi Sunni protesters were killed and 12 were wounded in a violent demonstration near the Iranian consulate in Karbala, 100 km south of Baghdad, and at the end of November, an attack on the Iranian consulate in Najaf city 160 km from Baghdad. As a result, the Iranian regime has banned its citizens from visiting holy sites across Iraq for fear of attacks.

Monday for protests outside US Embassy in Baghdad: "Until Iraq leaves"

Iran has actually built itself on American non-response policies. The United States attack in Iraq, this week

Documentation of US attack in Iraq (Photo: Screenshot)

In the US-Iranian conflict, Trump decided to draw a red and clear line to curb the Iranian drift and approved a broad attack based on pro-Iranian Shiite militias totaling 25 dead and dozens injured. Furthermore, the Americans spread the heavy video of a heavy cloud of aggression between the parties and intensified the humiliation. In the Middle East this is a critical component for examining and evaluating enemies. How humiliating he was and how careful he was not to humiliate too much. In less than a day, Suleimani approved an attack on the US embassy in the Green Zone, ten square miles in the heart of Baghdad, defined as a secure and reserved international space where embassies and offices of other Western countries are located.

It was not a spontaneous decision by the Qods Force but an operational plan in the toolbar. Otherwise, there is no way to explain how all the sensors and warnings of the United States in space, including Iraqi security circles, have collapsed in a way that thousands of Shiites can reach the gated compound gates. The evacuation of the US ambassador in a hurry from Iraq was evidence of a failure. As if nothing was learned from the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012 during which four Americans were killed, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens.
But Americans like Americans look at this event as a superpower. Think slowly and strategically if it is right to degrade the region for a bloody military confrontation with Iran with the American nerves well exposed in the Middle East.

Therefore, it can be estimated that the US attack on the basis of the militia is a strategic and non-tactical move. Its purpose was to strengthen deterrence against Iranian Quds forces and their envoys and prevent erosion in other areas. But the blow and humiliation inflicted by the Americans is too great and Sulimani, who is still licking the wounds, also confirmed this morning (Wednesday) the continued attacks around the embassy, ​​ignoring the fact that the area should be demilitarized and secure.

Not a spontaneous decision by the Qods Force. Clashes outside the US Embassy in Iraq today (Photo: Reuters)

Protests outside US Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq January 1, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

Israel is directly and indirectly affected by the events between the United States and Iran in Iraq. Just last week, Aviv Kochavi at a conference in the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya made it clear that not only were all the arenas active, but more arenas were added, stressing Iraq, Passing there on a monthly basis. And we can't do that without treatment. "But Kochavi's words were spoken before the US attack on the militia and the violent response against the embassy. Even then, one would think that Israel was not acting freely in the Iraqi airspace, as she was told in the media, to thwart Iranian weapons convoys As it would mainly because of sensitivities in the political sphere, most likely now, the United States would be interested in waging a brain war with Iran without background noise, probably not from Israel.

The political echelon and the IDF will have to look for other avenues and modes of action to counteract Iran's weapons transfers through Iraq and to prevent Iranian consolidation and establishment of Iraqi bases. The nature of Israeli operations and may impose similar restrictions in order to reduce Israeli activity to damage and disrupt Iranian establishment in Syria.Only, social networks in foreign languages ​​have published two events in which the Russian Air Force exposed Israeli Air Force fighter jets in the Syrian area and demanded Of them, they returned to Israeli territory. The IDF did not respond to publications. Even if there is no truth in Russian language publications, they reflect a tense and stressful atmosphere around Russian interests in Syria.

Following the attack on the embassy in Baghdad, the US military landed 100 Marines and Apache helicopters to reinforce the compound (Photo: Reuters)

The US-Iran conflict may limit Israel's efforts to operate in Iraq

The chief of staff did not hide the level of explosions last week, stressing that "if we do not act, we must continue to uproot Syrian capabilities from Israel. The IDF will remain. He added that "if we act, there is a high chance that the Iranians will respond. Hence a short way to a confrontation. It would be better if we were not the only ones to act against them kinetically. Offensively, this is the reality for now. We intend to continue this activity for now. This is discretionary. Responsible. Looking at the scene, weighing in on the considerations. All the effects. All the consequences. But we cannot allow Iran to be based in the northern region at all and not even in Iraq. "

Chief of Staff did not hide last week's level of explosiveness. Air Force F-35 aircraft (Photo: Reuven Castro)

May 9, 2019 (Tel Aviv Air Force) (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Security officials estimate that the prospects for a limited or wide-ranging conflict with Iran will increase in 2020. Especially when examining Iran's conduct on the nuclear project. The Ayatollah regime decided in response to the White House's steps to gradually withdraw from the nuclear agreement with the West. More centrifuges are working today. More uranium is enriched beyond what has been agreed upon. More scientists are being recruited for work and there is no definite response from the West. Therefore, the Israeli concern is that if the Iranians make a decision, they could run for a nuclear bomb in about six months. Therefore, in Israel, against the background of the very tense situation, the order of action and determination against Iran must be planned in the 10 years ahead, but also in the immediate term.

According to the sequence of events, Iranians cannot wait for the end of the presidential election in the United States and can take aggressive action even earlier. Iran has long been not the enemy within a thousand miles of Israel. It is an enemy that can be seen eye-to-eye on the borders of Lebanon, Gaza through envoys, Syria and behind Iraq, relatively close to Iraq.