The transition to the new year is an opportunity for everyone to wish their family and loved ones happy encounters, fulfilling projects, and healthy iron.
Nothing to do with the speech to the nation of Kim Jung Un which rather leaves an aftertaste of the end of the world. The North Korean dictator, who came to power in 2011, has his own way of celebrating the New Year: with bellicose wishes, but which fortunately remain pious. Latest example on Wednesday, when the head of state notably announced the forthcoming disclosure of "a new strategic weapon that North Korea has". A look back on eight years of threats.
What is the staging used?
The leader, who took up the torch from his grandfather, after 19 years without any televised speech, always borrows the same staging. Dressed in his usual black suit, he appears on television from the presidential palace.
Always sporting the same haircut, shaved close to the sides, Kim Jung Un is standing behind a golden desk decorated with a sickle and a hammer in front of an army of microphones and in a room that seems empty with in the background a communist flag. The speech is declaimed impassively and the video montage pours into the incongruous: each announcement of the leader is followed, sometimes by an image of the presidential palace adorned with false applause, sometimes by photos of his inaugurations last year.
Is there a threat gradation?
The substance of the speech remains intact: a hand extended to South Korea, followed by threats against anyone who wants to harm Pyongyang, while taunting the UN which regularly enjoins it to give up its nuclear program. But over the years, provocation and martial vocabulary have increased.
When he made his first wishes on December 31, 2012, Kim Jong Un prided himself on a successful “rocket” shot (perceived by his neighbors as a ballistic missile). But he also made a gesture towards South Korea, speaking of "reunification".
The tone grew stronger the following year: the dictator brandished the threat of a "nuclear disaster" on the Korean peninsula. 2015, a new hand extended to Seoul. Kim Jung-Un says he is ready for "talks at the highest level" with his neighbor. He nevertheless castigates "a bellicose atmosphere where war exercises targeting the other side are underway".
The following year, the North Korean accused the South of having back-pedaled and threatened with "a ruthless sacred war" in the event of an attack on his country. His threat increased a notch in 2017, as the tone rose with the American president. Pyongyang would then be "at the final preparations before the first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile".
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His wishes for 2018 are little more reassuring: Kim Jong Un calls on his country to mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles. With this warning: "The nuclear button is still on my desk. "
A Kim-Trump meeting in June 2018 will lead to more measured wishes in 2019. But the threat remains. If Washington maintains its nuclear-related sanctions, "we could be forced to explore a new path to defend the sovereignty of our country," asserts the North Korean.
Finally this year, 11 months after the failure of a Kim-Trump summit, the speech is rather focused on the effect of surprise. The dictator promises an action "staggering" to make pay (in the United States) the price of the pain undergone by our people ". And he refers to the possession of "a new strategic weapon".
Are his threats being followed up?
International players continue to wonder what the limits of the Pyongyang regime are in provocation and threat. To date, there has been neither "nuclear disaster" nor "ruthless sacred war", as Kim Jong Un said in his vows.
The verbal escalation clearly shows that the entire diplomatic strategy of the North Korean leader "is based on deterrence", points out in our pages Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute of International Relations (Iris). "For Kim Jong Un, nuclear weapons are intended to protect his country and his power, but he also knows that it is only used if it is not used," he analyzes.
As the dictator keeps praising himself, intercontinental missile fire tests are linked together, with ever more sophisticated technology. The last date is December 13. And his announcement this Wednesday to end the moratorium that Pyonguang observed on nuclear tests and ballistic missile tests leaves perplexed about the future actions of the country. Mistrust therefore remains in place, vis-à-vis this leader full of surprises.
