The IDF Intelligence Assessment, released next week, is expected to alert: The prospect of a conflict in the north has increased • But this time, the military has noticed a gap between the intensity of the threat and the way it is perceived in the public.

• The public in the center of the country believes that the war does not concern him. Alarm in Ashkelon // Photo: AFP

The IDF's annual intelligence assessment, which will be released next week to the political echelon and its major publications, is expected to indicate an increase in the likelihood of a conflict in the northern arena. This conclusion stems from a series of processes in recent months on the axis between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon under the auspices of those flagged Recent as the # 1 risk factor in the region: Revolutionary Guards Qods Force Commander Kassem Suleimani.

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Iran, while facing severe economic sanctions and even provoking the harshest protests since the Khomeini revolution in '79, is also facing waves of protests in Iraq and Lebanon and restlessness in Yemen and Syria, but is determined to continue its operations outside its borders. Mostly things are said in Syria, where Iran is continuing its efforts to establish itself, and in Lebanon, with regard to arming Hezbollah with advanced weapons.

Soldiers near the perimeter fence in the north // Photo: Eyal Margolin - Ginny

Advertisement at Dizengoff Center entrance // Photo: Yehoshua Yosef

Israel has already made it clear that it will not allow continued Iranian efforts, and has recently also hinted that it intends to step up military activity against Iranian targets in Syria. At the same time - and in light of Iran's return to uranium enrichment, following the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement - in recent months, Israel has been required to renew close monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program, and may also refresh future Iranian nuclear programs.

US and Russia in the background

These trends are expected to increase tensions in the northern arena, resulting in a likelihood of escalation. As before, it is believed that both sides are not interested in the conflict, but the danger of unwanted and uncontrollable deterioration exists as always, with the background of uncertainty about the extent of Russia and the US involvement (which seemed to be disinterested in active action against Iran until the last days in Iraq, which does not mean suffix).

100,000 missiles

Similar estimates have recently been made by two prominent Israeli research institutes, Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, who heads the National Security Research Institute, and Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror, senior executives of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. In media interviews, the two pointed to the danger of a growing conflict in the north, saying that Israel should consider the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in order to reduce the future war damage from the organization, which holds more than 100,000 rockets and rockets capable of hitting any point in Israel. The remarks were also written in the annual assessment of the Jerusalem Institute recently published in 2020, and they may also appear in the assessment of the Institute headed by Yadlin, which will be published next week.

Hezbollah people march in Beirut // Photo: AFP

As a result of these assessments, the defense establishment is expected to take several actions, notably operational intelligence, and unlike before - even those concerning the home front. The IDF leadership has come to the realization that there is a huge gap between the threat and the way the public understands it, and in an emergency it could cost a person's life and even sabotage Israel's chances of deciding the campaign.

Feeling invulnerable

The debate over the degree of preparation required for the home front (or as the IDF says: how much it is desirable to get civilians into hysteria) has always taken place, and the various Home Front commanders have ranged from shrinking and expanding trends. And his opinion was also received by the General Staff following the assassination of the Gaza Islamic Jihad official in Baha Abu Alta last November, and the public criticism of his decision to cancel his studies and leave for work in Tel Aviv that day.

Desolate junction in Ramat Gan, the day after the Abu Alta liquidation // Photo: Yehoshua Yosef

The IDF realized then that the public in the center of the country believes that the war is not about him, and that he is in very low readiness for the possibility of an outbreak and its implications. Evidence of the expected change was given by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi in ​​his speech last week to the seminar in memory of Amnon Lipkin Explicit on the need to coordinate expectations with citizens.

Be careful of hysteria

Things are now expected to accelerate against the background of intelligence assessments and the possibility that Israel will find itself rolling into a possible campaign on the northern front. However, the IDF is expected to try to avoid creating a "war atmosphere" in the future, but to raise awareness - and consequently also contribute to preparedness - for the explosive security situation and its possible consequences.