The National Security Research Institute today released President Rivlin's strategic assessment for 2020 - which was updated following the assassination of Kassem Suleimani. The leading threat for the coming year according to the Institute's researchers: Frontal war against all opposing forces in the north

• The masses in Tehran come to pay tribute to Kassem Suleimani // Photo: AFP

Following recent events and the assassination of Kassem Suleimani, the Quds Force Commander and senior officials of the Iranian regime, the National Security Research Institute (INSS) has updated the strategic evaluation presented to the country's president on Monday, at an open media event held in his office.

The National Security Research Institute (INSS) today presented President Rivlin with a strategic assessment of Israel and its threat index in 2020. The annual strategic evaluation summarizes the key strategic environmental analysis of Israel's national security - on existing threats and opportunities - and outlines a series of recommendations to its makers. In this assessment, the Institute's researchers present to the President the essential security and policy issues for Israel in the course of 2020, and on this basis, the Institute also presents a political-security strategy for tackling the threats to the State of Israel.

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The head of the National Security Research Institute, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, presented the strategic assessment to the country's president at an open media event, which has sparked much interest in recent developments and uncertainty that is currently prevalent in the region.

The main insight into the state of Israel in the new year is that there is an increased likelihood of war. At the center of the 2020 strategic assessment is the tension between Israel's clear strength and impressive successes in the various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will emerge as temporary and fragile.

This tension stems from a number of factors that could lead to a widespread confrontation in the coming year, and even to war, mainly because of the increased Iranian determination and boldness, both in the nuclear field and in its efforts to establish Syria and other arenas and to place action capabilities with Israel. Hezbollah's efforts to achieve precise attack capabilities on a large scale, too, and Hamas's efforts to alleviate pressure in Gaza and influence the terms of the arrangement with Israel, are affecting the feasibility of the war, particularly in the context of the ongoing political crisis in Israel.

Elimination of Suleimani gives the Institute's researchers more weight in our assessment of the possibility of escalation and the need to formulate a new Israeli strategy. The elimination creates a new context and holds the potential for strategic turnaround, the scope and dimensions of which are still to be assessed. Iran is likely now considering its response to US action, in the absence of Suleimani, who has previously coordinated the thinking and planning processes of such operations in the regional arena. It is also still too early to assess the effect of the Suleimani liquidation, which has led Iran's relationship with its affiliates in the region, and the Iranian determination and courage as reflected in recent months.

The uncertainty, instability and explosiveness that characterizes the Middle East in the last decade. Iran is likely to respond strongly to the killing of Suleimani against American targets, but action may also be taken against US allies in the Middle East, including Israel.

Under these circumstances, it is appropriate to prepare for a range of possible scenarios: escalation of events to a wide-ranging conflict between the United States and Iran, in which Israel may also be involved, the ongoing Iran-US skirmish in recent times and even the postponement of the Iranian response at a later date, with the United States and its allies prepared Decrease.

Ranking the top threats according to the National Security Research Institute, according to their severity:

1. The "First Northern War" - a frontal war against all the forces in the north: Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian regime and pro-Iranian militias. This is the most serious threat for 2020. The challenges facing Israel in the northern arena have intensified over the past year, and the IDF must ensure preparations for a multi-scene war ("all in all") as the leading reference scenario.

The most significant conventional military threat to Israel is posed by the northern arena, from the direction of Iran and its sponsors: first and foremost Hezbollah in Lebanon, and then the Assad regime and Syrian military militias operating in Syria and Iraq in Iranian guidance, as well as Iranian forces. The resulting escalation risks were illustrated this year at events in late August and early September 2019.

Such an escalation, if it goes down to a total war, can be expressed in two main descriptions: "Third Lebanon War" with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will be far more powerful and destructive than the second Lebanon war; And the "First Northern War" with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also with forces in Syria and Iraq, and possibly in Iran and other countries (escalation may also develop following an Iranian response to Israeli targets after the Sulimani assassination). In these descriptions, Israel is expected to deal with massive firing at the home front, some of which are accurate missiles, with an effort to bring ground forces into its territory and with a broad consciousness attack to undermine the public's resilience and confidence in the political and military leadership.

In the context of the "precision project," the debate should confront the potential damage from using the precise weapon with the options of action (defensive and offensive) against it. In this context, there must also be an in-depth discussion of the idea of ​​a "pre-emptive strike" against Hezbollah and the right timing for such an attack, in light of the progress of the "accuracy project" and other alternatives.

2. Iran's nuclear program - This is the only threat with existential potential for Israel. Its urgency is lower in 2020, but its potential severity for the future is highest. Israel must prepare for the extreme scenario, even if it is unlikely in 2020. Suleimani's assassination could also lead to another scenario requiring Israeli thinking and coordination with the United States: a widespread confrontation between Iran and the United States.

3. Military confrontation in the south - The potential for a flare-up against Hamas remains high despite the efforts of the regulation. Despite the high shower potential, the severity of this threat is significantly less than that of Israel from the north. If a campaign breaks out, Israel should conduct it as a surprising, maneuverable, targeted Hamas military arm - without "preserving Hamas as an address" and without the Gaza conquest - and end in a diplomatic position of the series from a position of power.