The greatest success of younger European diplomacy, the Iran nuclear deal hardly seems to save. After the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed by the United States, the government in Tehran has not just sworn revenge. It has also announced that it will exit the nuclear deal that the EU once brokered between Iran and the United States, China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.
"There will be no more restrictions on the number of centrifuges," tweeted Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. This would allow Iran to again enrich more uranium - and also produce enough fissile material for nuclear weapons in a relatively short time.
At the same time, however, Zarif left a back door open: one could undo these and other steps if all parties returned to fulfill the nuclear agreement. In plain language: If the United States cancels its sanctions against Iran again. In addition, Zarif promised to continue "full cooperation" with the IAEA, so that the inspectors from the international atomic energy agency would not be thrown out of the country for the time being.
As 5th & final REMEDIAL step under paragraph 36 of JCPOA, there will no longer be any restriction on number of centrifuges
This step is within JCPOA & all 5 steps are reversible upon EFFECTIVE implementation of reciprocal obligations
Iran's full cooperation w / IAEA will continue
At first glance, so much conciliation is remarkable given the vows of revenge after the killing of Soleimani. But it should follow a clear calculation: to drive the already existing wedge in a transatlantic relationship even deeper between Europe and America. This has already been achieved in parts:
- When the US government unilaterally terminated the nuclear deal and imposed new sanctions, the EU didn't want to go along.
- It even launched a financial instrument to help EU companies bypass the US to continue doing business with Iran.
- The institute called Instex has so far been unsuccessful - but it has shown the Iranian government that, if necessary, the EU also risks the conflict with Washington to save the nuclear deal.
Now there are many indications that Iran will try to deepen this division - and therefore may be relatively calm at first. Because if the Iranian government started to increase uranium enrichment again and at the same time practiced massive retribution for Soleimani's death, Americans and Europeans would be reunited.
EU absolutely wants to save nuclear deal
The EU would probably be forced to impose its own sanctions. Corresponding indications already exist: Should Iran carry out the threat with the centrifuges, said Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Deutschlandfunk, it would "not just be a shrug".
However, if the regime does not take such steps, it increases the pressure on Europeans to distance themselves from the United States in order to perhaps save the nuclear deal. The reactions after the attack on Soleimani have already shown that this strategy could work.
While Trump threatened to bomb Iran and even its cultural sites on Sunday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell invited Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif to Brussels on the phone. Borrell was "deeply concerned" about the killing of Soleimani - a barely disguised disapproval of the American approach.
more on the subject
Germany, France and Great Britain were also "deeply concerned" - but not about the killing of Soleimani, but about the "negative role" that Iran also played in the region with the help of the al-Quds brigades commanded by Soleimani. As always, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put it a little more directly: "We are not complaining about his death."
The episode shows the deep dilemma of the EU: on the one hand, one does not want to be pushed to the side of the Iranian dictatorship, on the other hand, one fears for the existence of the nuclear deal. Because, as Merkel, Macron and Johnson made clear in a joint statement, their end, unlike Soleimani's death, they considered deplorable.
"In the interest of everyone that the contract remains"
Iran should "withdraw all measures that are not in line with the nuclear agreement," it said. Iran's announcement that uranium enrichment would increase again was "worrying," said a Johnson spokesman. "It is in everyone's interest that the contract remains in effect." An "urgent" conversation with the partners will be sought. According to Foreign Minister Maas, Iran's centrifuge threat could be "a first step in ending this agreement, which would be a great loss".
The SPD politician said that on Monday the French and the British would discuss a joint reaction that could be expected during the week. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also called a meeting of the ambassadors of the member countries on Monday to discuss the situation in Iran and the region.
Everyone is tweeting, only von der Leyen doesn't
So far there is only one place: at the head of the EU Commission. Her president Ursula von der Leyen, who had promised a "geopolitical commission" before taking office in December, has so far not heard a word about the escalation in Iran. A spokesman announced a statement Monday, without revealing details of the content beforehand. He also did not want to say whether von der Leyen had or will hold talks with the heads of state and government involved.
What the EU will do next is largely decided in Vienna, the seat of the International Atomic Energy Agency. "Every crucial step depends on the IAEA's assessment," said a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Borrell.
The implicit message: If the inspectors come to the conclusion that Iran continues to abide by the agreements on the nuclear deal, the EU will not impose any sanctions - and will therefore continue to cross the US government.
"There are international conventions against the destruction of cultural heritage"
In Berlin, people no longer go out of their way to hide the fact that the killing of Soleimani is simply considered illegal. "We currently do not have any information that would allow us to understand the US's international justification for the attack," said a spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office.
Trump's threat to destroy Iran's cultural sites - a tactic previously known mainly to Islamist extremists - condemns even the British government, which relied on Trump's goodwill after Brexit. "Against the destruction of cultural heritage," a spokesman for Premier Johnson said, "there are international conventions."