Does the new situation in Iran, between a paroxysm of tension and (relative) de-escalation in the confrontation with Trump's America, have an impact on the fate of the two French researchers imprisoned in Tehran for more than seven months?
As for the colleagues of Fariba Adelkhah and Roland Marchal as well as the Elysée, who follows this file day by day, we officially defend ourselves from all optimism. Nevertheless, Jean-François Bayart, political scientist professor at the Institute of Higher International Studies and Development (IHEID) of Geneva and close to the prisoners, does not hide that after the "feeling of dramatization of the crisis" of the last days, he feels "a little bit less worried".
Certain signs confirm this renewed hope. First, the Tehran court has just dropped the charge of espionage against Fariba Adelkhah. "It was the most formidable, subject in theory to the death penalty," breathes Bayart. The two remaining chiefs could still give him a sentence of one to five years in prison. ” Another positive signal, the Franco-Iranian anthropologist was transferred from the fearsome Evin prison, in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, to a less isolated establishment for ordinary prisoners.
"Iranians like to blow hot and cold"
But news of the researcher remains rare: the Iranian authorities, refusing to recognize her dual nationality, consider her to be Iranian, thereby limiting consular visits. Her family in Tehran sees it, but does not communicate abroad. "She continues her hunger strike, which she doubled at Christmas with a 24-hour thirst strike," continues Jean-François Bayart. Her colleagues are worried about the health of this petite sexagenarian, who should have returned to France in June, just before her arrest, to undergo medical treatment ... consequently interrupted.
More worrying, the fate of Roland Marchal, who would remain incommunicado in the political district of the Evin penitentiary and also suffers from health problems. He will only spend the week of January 13 in court. Will the judges show the same “flexibility”? Nothing is less sure. "The Iranians like to blow hot and cold," says Bayart ... who prefers to emphasize the "excellent competence" of the Iranian lawyer and "the mobilization" of the Elysée Palace and the Quai d'Orsay. For the time being, the world of researchers therefore favors this direct and discreet diplomacy over "big demonstrations in front of the Iranian embassy which would provide a pretext for the Revolutionary Guards to harden their position".
On the Elysee side, we limit ourselves to recalling that the head of state requests, with each phone call to his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rohani, the release of the prisoners. By insisting in particular on the fact that Fariba Adelkhah is a French citizen like the others.
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According to a diplomat, with these recent positive signals, Tehran intends to show that it clearly distinguishes between this Franco-Iranian dossier and that of Iranian nuclear power, a permanent source of tension with the West. The same diplomat noted that Emmanuel Macron is one of the few to speak directly, for some time now, with Hassan Rohani. But we must beware of any excess of optimism: "Do not look for a logic, only the Iranians could give it to you," sighs an old truck driver from the region.
