Will the Iranian army's deadly blunder rekindle international tension, when Tehran and Washington began to de-escalate after the Americans' elimination of General Soleimani? A priori no. "Trump's war agenda is not determined by the casualties suffered by Canadians and Ukrainians, but only by American casualties," analyzes geopolitologist Pascal Boniface, director of IRIS (Institute for Strategic International Relations). .
However, no American perished in the tragedy of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 which left 176 dead. Of course, and he does not hesitate when he sees fit, Donald Trump could use such an international incident to "punish" Iran again. "But Trump would have no interest in it, on the contrary, he has a personal, electoral interest in a lull," notes Boniface. In fact, the reactions of the United States are not excessive. It must be said that to have themselves shot down an Iranian civilian Airbus in 1988, they have reasons not to add more.
This relative measure, which condemns Iran, but avoids demonizing it, seems moreover shared in most chancelleries, including Canadian and Ukrainian. The mullahs' unprecedented willingness to assume - while putting some of the responsibility on the back of Trump - and to play on transparency has defused, for now anyway, the risk of a new conflagration.
Anger and resentment
But it is inside the country, even the regime, that the critics are the harshest. They are aimed very directly at the Pasdarans (Guardians of the Revolution), the armed wing which allows the Ayatollahs to hold the country under their control. This Saturday, Iranians took to the streets again, blaming the Guardians for their fault: if there was to be "revenge", they shout in substance, it should have hit Americans, not nationals of other countries or even even less Iranians (on board the Boeing)!
"The anger and resentment are all the stronger since Iran, after a period of sharp opposition to the regime, had found a national consensus, which was expressed in particular during the funeral of General Soleimani," continues Pascal Boniface. Tehran, in short, had a good deal in hand. There, he finds himself humiliated, forced to apologize and receive future compensation. Heroes of war yesterday, victors of jihadists of the Islamic State (ISIS, the eternal Sunni rivals of the Persian Shiites) in Syria and Iraq, the Revolutionary Guards suddenly appear as amateurs incapable of handling a battery of anti-missiles. air.
All the more annoying, decrypts the director of Iris, "that the Pasdarans form a veritable national army, not a simple militia like the pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists who shot down the Boeing of Malaysia Airlines in 2014". In short, while they are supposed to protect the country - and export the Islamic revolution -, they on the contrary weakened it, raising doubts on their military effectiveness. The public contrition of General Hajizadeh, commanding the aerospace branch of the Revolutionary Guards, will probably not be enough to avoid a crisis and settling of scores within the regime.