Find a little light, or bite a little more dust. No need to take tweezers, the issue is clear: while The Republicans have been running electoral debacles for almost three years, the municipal elections will be crucial.
Weakened and almost inaudible in the public debate since the election of Emmanuel Macron, they still retain a precious asset that is missing to the Walkers: their historically very strong local political establishment, reinforced by the blue wave of municipal elections in 2014. But this dike , the last one that separates LR from a one-way trip to oblivion, can it jump?
For a few months, confidence seems to have taken precedence over feverishness. And the mayors LR, whose legs floundered at the sight of the least potential candidate LREM, resume colors. Several polls in large cities held by the right (Caen, Saint-Etienne, Reims, Nice ...) have confirmed this: the outgoing would remain, a priori, far ahead of Walkers lagging behind. What reassure, a little, those who feared a rapid burial of LR.
"The objective is to remain in the majority"
But pitfalls remain: in Marseille, for example, two LR candidates will dispute the succession of Jean-Claude Gaudin, making more uncertain the outcome of an election which should nevertheless have been acquired. In addition, in many cities, LREM supports the outgoing mayor LR, at the risk of fueling confusion… even trying to grab the political benefit of a package of victories to the right.
“Today we have a majority of cities. The objective is to remain in the majority, "the Republican boss Christian Jacob had warned us in late November. For others, to resist is already won. "We are going to grow out of the municipal elections, once again considered as an alternative force, anchored in the territories," wants to believe the Deux-Sèvres senator Philippe Mouiller.
In fact, the majority should take little or no city. And the National Rally if it should progress, remains, locally, a political dwarf. "Keeping our town halls will be the victory, and will already allow us to loosen the noose in which we are caught, between RN and LREM", nuances a senior party official. A little air for LR, already.
LREM defeated, LR not necessarily victorious
But can an election which, by definition, resists national clearance, really, in the other direction, put wind in the tired sails of the right ship, and give it momentum for the future?
“We are going to win the municipal elections, but we will not benefit from them at the national level. LREM will emerge defeated, but we will not necessarily emerge victorious, ”warns the mayor (LR) of Antibes and ex-interim president of the party, Jean Leonetti.
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Understand: if The Republicans "win" this election, they will have just avoided the worst. And the municipal authorities will not be enough, far from it, to reinstall the right in the foreground.
In numbers
According to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, the Right (LR, centrists and DVD) holds 572 cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants in France.
Read our dossier on municipal
> The ballot which can change everything before the presidential
> LREM's cuckoo strategy
> Emmanuel Macron behind, Edouard Philippe at the front
> Jérôme Fourquet: "The national climate can handicap En Marche"
> RN wants to strengthen its strongholds
> The Greens already see themselves there after the success of the Europeans
> Marseille: Gaudin's heavy succession
> Bordeaux: a funny campaign in the absence of Alain Juppé
> Lyon: the endless fight of Gérard Collomb
> Biarritz: the duel of ministers embarrasses the executive