The next war in the Middle East will probably not be about water but gas: its control of gas reservoirs and its transport and supply routes to Europe.
True, water was and remains a driving force in the Middle East. Their importance has also increased due to global warming, the prolonged drought years and the rate of population growth. Most Arab states find it difficult to provide water for their residents for drinking and agriculture, tensions around the Nile conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia, as was the case between Turkey and Syria around the Euphrates, and the Arab spring in Syria erupted in the face of economic hardship in the countryside as a result of the drought.
But now it seems that the water's place as a source of regional tension is catching up on gas today. The discovery of gas reservoirs on the Mediterranean coast has raised hopes for huge profits that could improve the economic situation of all the region's countries. Seemingly cooperation between governments may allow them to significantly increase profits from the reservoirs, but in our region the sentiment overcomes logic. One of the reasons for the smashing of the swords is the fact that most of the gas reservoirs are located in the Mediterranean, a space that has not been clearly marked and never shared clearly and agreed between the countries that lie near it. For example, the Lebanese government, presumably under Hezbollah pressure, requires ownership of some of the gas reservoirs on the Israeli border with Israel, thus delaying the production of gas reserves in Lebanese territory that are not in dispute.
Erdogan's Turkey is currently the main source of threat to regional stability, and its steps may even degrade the region for confrontation. In 1974, Turkey conquered Northern Cyprus, and since then it has treated the northern part of the island as its sovereign territory. This gives her, at least in her eyes, the right to claim ownership of some of the territorial waters of Cyprus, thereby curbing attempts to search for and produce gas.
Now Erdogan extends his hands to Libya as well. He took advantage of the civil war there and, in exchange for assurances to the government in Tripoli, signed an agreement granting Turkey economic control over the maritime space extending from Turkey to the Libyan coast. This way Ankara can prevent Israel, Cyprus and Greece from laying a pipeline for gas exports to Europe.
The Turks want such a gas pipeline to pass through their territory, but at the time of political reasons, the contacts with Israel have been delayed until it is desperate for the chance to reach an agreement. Cyprus and Greece are already confronted with this question with Turkey, and joined by Egypt, who in any case considers Erdogan an enemy Islamist. Now Cairo has announced that it will not put up with a Turkish military presence in Libya, Egypt's backyard, and will not allow Turkey to realize its Mediterranean claims.
A combination of ego, politics, and the expectation of billions of profits is thus fueling the tension in the region, and this could deteriorate into a military confrontation, which has obvious implications for Israel.