[Wuhan pneumonia] British study: estimated as many as 1,723 actual cases in Wuhan

Instant international

Written by: Xu Anan

2020-01-18 16:34

The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London in the United Kingdom published a research report on January 17 stating that the number of people infected with unknown pneumonia virus infection in Wuhan was far higher than the number officially notified. There are currently 45 cases in China diagnosed with "Wuhan pneumonia" through laboratory tests, and British experts estimate that the actual number may be as high as 1723.

Cases of pneumonia of unknown cause have been recorded in Wuhan City of Hubei Province in December, all of which are related to the local South China Seafood Wholesale Market. So far, two people have been infected. The pathogen was initially judged by Chinese experts as a new type of coronavirus, which is a "relative" to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus. The World Health Organization (WHO) has named "Wuhan Pneumonia" as 2019 New Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

The MRC Global Infectious Diseases Analysis Centre, Imperial College London, released a report on January 17 that estimates that the city is infected by far more than 1,000 people. The article pointed out that as of January 12, Wuhan estimated that "a total of 1,723 cases".

Researchers based on Wuhan International Airport flight data and used the number of cases reported to date outside China (2 in Thailand and 1 in Japan) to infer how many cases are likely to be in the city. A BBC report on the 18th pointed out that scientists can't get exact figures, but an outbreak model based on virus, local population and flight data can give outsiders a sense of this.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who wrote the report, told the BBC: "As far as Wuhan has exported three cases to other countries, it means that the number of local cases may be more than reported." Ferguson said he was better than A week ago he was more worried, but he also said, "It's too early to make alarmist claims."

He added that "the public should now think more seriously about the possibility of large-scale human-to-human transmission of the virus." He also pointed out that the statement that "human exposure to animals is the main source of infection" is unlikely.

The MRC Global Infectious Diseases Analysis Centre provides advice to a number of global medical organizations such as the British government and the World Health Organization (WHO), and has considerable authority.

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