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Written by: Zheng Cuibi, Li Enci
2020-01-21 11:14
Last updated: 2020-01-21 12:39The outbreak of unknown pneumonia in Wuhan caused by the new coronavirus has continued to spread, with a total of 219 confirmed cases nationwide. The Cooperative Centre for Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases of the Li Ka-shing Medical College of the University of Hong Kong will hold a press conference this morning (21st) to publish a real-time real-time forecast of the domestic and international spread of Wuhan's new coronavirus during the Spring Festival.
Prof. Liang Zhuowei, Chair Professor of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong Medical College, and Prof. Liang Zhuowei, Founding Director of the WHO Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control Cooperative Center, and Professor Huo Qi from the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division of the School of Public Health, the University of Hong Kong Medical College attended the event.
"Hong Kong 01" will be broadcast live.
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Liang Zhuowei said that starting from today, the epidemic situation of Wuhan new coronavirus pneumonia in the past two weeks will be reviewed, real-time status, and the development of the epidemic in the next two weeks. He also said that an online application of a mathematical model of epidemiology will be introduced for health authorities to estimate whether there has been a case of superseizure.
Liang Zhuowei estimates that according to a mathematical model, as of January 17, Wuhan is most likely to have 1,343 (mode) patients with unknown pneumonia, and the mean number of confirmed cases is 1,680. He described the numbers as similar to last week's estimates by Imperial College London, which could cite each other. Imperial College previously estimated an average of 1,700 cases. The Mainland officially announced that there were 198 confirmed cases in Wuhan as of January 19.
He speculated that the number of confirmed diagnoses of Wuhan pneumonia abroad would be reduced to one in the next two weeks. He explained that there were four confirmed cases abroad in the past week, but because the Wuhan authorities have recently launched epidemic prevention measures, including temperature screening for entry and exit It is believed that it can effectively reduce the transmission of the virus, so the number of diagnoses abroad will decrease.
Liang Zhuowei also said that a press conference will be held tomorrow or the day after tomorrow to analyze information about the epidemic situation, clinical severity and mortality.
Liang Zhuowei believes that Wuhan is a "center capable of spreading" the new virus. Even if there are more than 10 cases in other cities in the Mainland, "the local area will not spread twice, three times, and four times, which will keep the local epidemic outbreak."
Liang Zhuowei speculated that the number of confirmed diagnoses of pneumonia in Wuhan in the next two weeks will be reduced to one. He explained that there were four confirmed cases abroad in the past week, but because the Wuhan authorities have recently launched anti-epidemic measures, including entry-exit temperature screening It is believed that it can effectively reduce the transmission of the virus, so the number of diagnoses abroad will decrease.
There have been more than 200 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, of which 4 died in Wuhan and 15 medical staff were infected. The picture shows the situation of pneumonia in Wuhan Hospital. (CCTV)
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Wuhan University of Pneumonia
