The data indicating that Trump could win reelection

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Hispanic seeks to get more votes to re-elect Trump 3:32

(CNN) - When analyzing the new CNN national survey, there is a single set of data that could well be the key to how someone as unpopular as President Donald Trump can win a second term in November.

And it is this: 55% of Americans approve of the work that Trump is doing in the economy, while 40% disapprove. That +15 gap is by far the best that Trump has in a series of questions about how he is handling various aspects of the country. In fact, it is one of the only two measures in which most Americans approve of disapproving the work they are doing. (Trump has a +3 margin in his handling of terrorism).

And his +15 in the economy far exceeds his general rate of approval of his job in the position (43% approval, 53% disapproval) in the new CNN data. (Trump's worst figures are about medical care and immigration, where he has -15 and -14, respectively).

You don't have to be a wise politician to see Trump's path to a second term: the economy, the economy, the economy. The history of modern presidential elections suggests that the economy is always at the center of the way voters decide, and that when people feel that things are going well (in their personal economy and in the country) they tend to want to keep the course.

For that argument, keep in mind: 55% of people in the CNN survey said things were going "very" or "quite" well in the country, compared to 43% who said they were "very" or "very" bad.

Trump's argument here is clear: you may not love me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, many things. But I am doing well. The stock market is at record highs. Why then would we consider changing horses halfway?

Will Trump do that? Probably not. It lacks the discipline of the message to remain in a single message for a few days at a time. But if he ends up snatching the victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it is that economic approval number that will explain it.

The point: it 's the economy, stupid. It is the same argument as always.

2020 election