Noise in the silence: The publication of the century deal may re-affirm the situation in Judea and Samaria

Despite the big statements, it is doubtful whether the peace plan Trump will soon announce will benefit the state of the Palestinians and settlers, both of whom enjoy a relatively prosperous period and a low level of friction. The plan, which appears to be hostile to the Palestinians, will create a sense of distress and may result in an explosion no one wants. Maybe only two

Noise in the silence: The publication of the century deal may re-affirm the situation in Judea and Samaria

The announcement next week of the century deal comes in one of the weird times the West Bank or Judea and Samaria has known in recent decades. Relatively drowsy fell on the West Bank, quiet (relatively speaking, this is the territories anyway) on the Palestinian side and on the Israeli side. Both sides are in a relatively good place, with a level of friction and violence from the lowest known areas. And so the question is, who exactly would benefit from publishing the program at this particular time? The answer is almost clichéd and screaming. Only two people need this plan right now: Netanyahu and Trump. Regarding Palestinians and settlers in the West Bank, it is doubtful that this plan will help change the situation on the ground.

Let's start with the Jewish side of the territories. In a moment, perhaps already this year, the number of Jewish settlers in the West Bank (not including East Jerusalem) will reach half a million. Just a few years ago, the talk of half a million settlers sounded like dreams of asphyxia. Now even the millionth vision already seems possible. Israeli settlements are growing, including Jewish cities. Residents' sense of security in continuous improvement, although terrorist attacks are still underway.

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The talk of half a million settlers sounded like dreams of asphyxia. Crowne in Migron settlement (Photo: Reuters)

New settlement in Maghron February 22, 2018 (Photo: Reuters)

And what about the Palestinian side? There is an unusual indifference of the public, accompanied by a kind of economic stability. The occupation became more comfortable. The West Bank, strange as it may sound, is based on "normality." Within the West Bank, there are no checkpoints. In other words, a resident of Jenin who leaves for Hebron will not encounter a checkpoint, a phenomenon that until a few years ago sounded like a distant fantasy. 95% of Palestinian young people own smartphones. Grocery stores are full, new hotels are opening, and of course the restaurants and real estate businesses are continuing the pace they have been in recent years and even more. The unemployment rate in the West Bank reaches about 18%, but this figure does not refer to the phenomenon of illegal residents, the IAA.

Every day, 70-80,000 legal workers cross the West Bank into Israel, another 30,000 workers work in settlements, and another 30-40,000 who enter Israel illegally. There is almost no one today who will prevent them from entering Israel and they simply pass through the West Bank to Israel, through a long evening of loopholes in the separation fence. In the past, Israel has tried to stop this phenomenon and fight it, but in recent months it seems that even the attempts have ceased and the defense establishment allows illegal workers to enter Israel, for reasons of priorities. This phenomenon, of course, impacts the security plane. 140-150,000 workers who would earn about NIS 100 a day working in the Palestinian Territories receive about NIS 250 to 400 a day in Israel, and needless to say, the motivation of those workers and their families to go out and do terrorist attacks is far too low.

Trump: I will publish the century deal before Netanyahu's arrival and Gantz to Washington

The PA is also registering a surprising stabilization. Abbas (Photo: Reuters)

Abu Mazen at an emergency meeting of the Palestinian leadership tomorrow evening in Ramallah to discuss the challenges facing the PA, including the offsetting of funds and the demolition of homes in Wadi Hummus, July 25, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

Alongside all of these, the Palestinian Authority should be noted. Abu Mazen, who is approaching the age of 85, was elected president 15 years ago, and since then this system, called the PA, has tens of thousands of officials, an impressive stabilization. Security coordination between Israel and the PA continues as usual, and security forces arrest Hamas activists, Islamic Jihad and even Fatah every week who plan to break this silence. And all of these produce a reasonable economic reality, much better than that of Gaza or neighboring Arab states. Of course, there is no economic growth and the West Bank's economy cannot be compared to that of Israel, but the occupation becomes the luxurious occupation.

Nonetheless, the Palestinian security forces and the Israeli system are trying to figure out who or what might violate the laid-back status. One of the great mysteries has to do with the condition of Rais, who will happen on "the day after" to go. It is hard to predict what things will look like in such a reality. So is the possibility of a popular outburst, the word "Arab Spring" against the Palestinian Authority, can violate this (relative) silence. And that possibility still exists in the face of the Palestinian public's disgust at the PA. The third option is a deteriorating event. A dramatic, unexpected development in the political or security sphere (Jewish terrorist attack) that could undermine the situation and start a snowball that is hard to predict.

Such an event could be, for example, an Israeli declaration of annexation of territories and an announcement by the PA to cease operations, or another example, a declaration by a hostile US government of a "peace plan" in double and multiple quotes, which will create a severe sense of distress among Palestinians, the public and the leadership. Unfortunately, next week's announcement, which is expected to be particularly sympathetic to Israel and hostile to the Palestinian positions, may produce quite a few radical reactions on the Palestinian side, which are contrary to the dominant trends today on the Palestinian and Israeli sides. But what not to do for Netanyahu to win the election in about a month and a week and Trump gain some points in an election year?

May trigger opposite reactions to the dominant trends today on the Palestinian and Israeli sides. Netanyahu and Trump (Photo: Haim Zach, GPO)

Netanyahu and Trump in Declarations at Prime Minister's House May 22, 2017 (Photo: Haim Zach, Government Press Bureau)