[Wuhan pneumonia] Anglo-American research estimates only 5.1% of cases detected, extrapolated to 250,000 infections early next month

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Written by: Hu Jiaxin

2020-01-25 13:47

The Wuhan pneumonia epidemic has spread greatly in the Mainland. Some foreign papers speculate that only 5.1% of infection cases were detected in Wuhan. If there is no change in prevention and control and the virus continues to spread, the epidemic will explode in other cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing And Chengdu; by the 4th of next month, Wuhan patients will reach up to 250,000 people, and the virus will be introduced into Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan with a high risk.

The research paper was co-published yesterday (24th) by academics from the University of Lancaster, the University of Florida, and the Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.

The paper states that the transmission coefficient of the new coronavirus is greater than 1, and it is estimated to be between 3.6 and 4, which is higher than SARS. To curb the spread of Wuhan pneumonia, 72 to 75% of infection cases must be controlled. The study estimates that only 5.1% of the cases have been detected in Wuhan, and that there have been a large number of infections in the community. It is believed that the situation reflects that the new virus is more difficult to detect. The study of the spread of the virus was speculated that the virus was transmitted from person to person because the source of the virus was that the South China Seafood Market had been closed at the beginning of the month, and there should be no more cases of animal transmission from humans.

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Research indicates that if there is no change in prevention and control and the virus continues to spread, the epidemic will occur in other cities in the Mainland, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. It is speculated that by the 4th of next month, Wuhan patients will reach 273,000. The number of infections in Shanghai was 915, and the number of infections in Guangdong and Shenzhen was 377 and 293 respectively. By then, the virus is highly risky and introduced into nearby countries and regions via air traffic, including Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

The mainland authorities have “closed the city” in the epidemic area of ​​Wuhan. However, research suggests that restricting traffic in and out of Wuhan may not prevent the spread of the epidemic in the Mainland. Even if the number of 99 traffic is reduced, it is expected to decrease by only 24.9% by the next month Cases of infection outside Wuhan.

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