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Written by: Chen Qianting
2020-01-25 20:45
Last updated: 2020-01-25 20:45The epidemic of new pneumonia in Wuhan is still spreading. Liang Zhuowei, dean of the School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, revealed today (25th) that according to a study by the University of Hong Kong, a patient who has been diagnosed with the new virus pneumonia can infect two close contacts. In a week, both figures were similar to those of the SARS epidemic 17 years ago. Liang Zhuowei warned that the new virus was "never weaker than SARS that year."
Five confirmed cases have been recorded in Hong Kong in the past two days, all of which are imported cases. Liang Zhuowei admits that "the virus has no boundaries". No government can order the virus to stop spreading. At present, every effort should be made to isolate patients as soon as possible by the "containment" strategy to slow down the epidemic. However, Hong Kong should also be mentally prepared or have local cases.
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Liang Zhuowei, the dean of the University of Hong Kong Medical School, revealed that a recent study by the University of Hong Kong team found that the average basic reproduction rate of the new virus is 2, which means that a patient who has been diagnosed with the new virus pneumonia can infect two close contacts. In one week, without any intervention, the epidemic would double in a week.
Compared with SARS data 17 years ago, the basic reproductive rate of SARS in the early stages of SARS was 2 to 3, that is, one person infected 2 to 3 people, and the number of infection cases will double in about 7 to 8 days. At the same time, Liang Zhuowei warned that the new virus is "never weaker than SARS of the year" and must not underestimate the epidemic.
Inpatient mortality rate reaches 14%
The data show that about 14% of patients who need to be hospitalized for a confirmed new virus die from the disease, or 1 in every 7 to 8 confirmed patients, while SARS has a hospital mortality rate of about 17%, but Liang Zhuowei pointed out that the difference between the new virus and SARS is that the new virus has more invisible cases that are mild and do not need to be admitted to hospitals, while nearly 100% of SARS patients will get sick and be hospitalized. Invisible cases of the virus may reduce overall mortality.
Liang Zhuowei urged not to underestimate the outbreak of the new viral pneumonia. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Isolating patients as early as possible to delay local transmission
Liang Zhuowei described the epidemic as severe, but the estimated reproductive rate of the new virus is the figure before the intervention of epidemic prevention measures. At present, the five confirmed cases in Hong Kong are all imported cases. There is no evidence showing local transmission cases. He believes that the "containment" strategy should be continued in Hong Kong. Any imported cases should be isolated and treated as soon as possible to prevent the patient from transmitting. Two more people.
He said that the virus must be recognized without boundaries, "you can stop it by any government or local government." However, in the past, when the Hong Kong government responded to the 2009 swine flu outbreak, the first case imported from Mexico was recorded. The first local transmission case occurred, which was delayed for 40 days. He believes that a containment strategy is needed, and "the epidemic situation can be withdrawn", but the public must also be mentally prepared or the first case of local transmission.
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The Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has previously published the gene sequence and images of the new coronavirus. (Image source: IVDC, China CDC)
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