Thematic interviews
Written by: Jingjing He
2020-01-25 10:30
Last updated: 2020-01-25 10:30In 2020, the investment market continued to be turbulent, and Wuhan pneumonia's global spread further aggravated risk aversion. Trump, the United States, pointed out that the second phase of the China-US trade agreement negotiations will discuss China's human rights and Hong Kong issues, and it also worried the market that China and the United States would resume conflict.
As the Lunar New Year approaches, it is also time to review the investment portfolio on hand. Experts in the foreign exchange market suggest that these two currencies should not be "touched."
Wen Zhuopei, chief market strategist at Hang Seng Bank, pointed out that this year the pound will mainly rise and fall between 1.28 and 1.34, and it will become weaker near the end of the year. It is recommended that everyone sell the pound. He pointed out that 2020 is still the transition period for Brexit, and it is expected that the exchange rate will not be too bad, but the closer the transition period at the end of this year, the more the market will worry about the British economy, at which time the money will begin to flow, causing the pound to move forward. under.
Sterling is expected to be under further pressure
Wen Zhuopei pointed out that the tariff negotiations to be conducted by the British government after Brexit are believed to be very difficult, because the EU accounts for about 50% of the UK's export market, while the UK accounts for only 8% of the EU's overall exports, and the UK lacks bargaining chips with the EU. For companies doing business in Europe, as the transition period approaches, "they have to face reality and cannot have any illusions that the United Kingdom will stay in the EU. For example, JP Morgan Chase Bank announced the purchase of a building in the center of Paris. The relocation of 450 positions is believed to be just the tip of the iceberg. Enterprises will gradually take action to gradually move assets from the UK back to Europe, which will further pressure the pound. "Wen Zhuopei said.
Wen Zhuopei said that the tariff negotiations between the British government and the European Union are believed to be very difficult. (Reuters)
RMB fear of trying 7.2
Lu Churen, an independent foreign exchange commodity analyst, was pessimistic about the yuan. He believed that the yuan ’s previous strength had ended. The previous phase of the China-US signing of the first-phase trade agreement was overbought. The basic factors did not match. Now it has gradually retreated to 6.92. In the short term, the RMB will return to the important psychological threshold of "7 calculations". In the short term, it will look at the level of 7 to 7.05. The second half of the year does not rule out the test 7.2.
He pointed out that there are many factors that are not good for the renminbi. First of all, China's economy is weak, but now there is a large-scale spread of Wuhan pneumonia, and the economic fundamentals are not good. In addition, Trump linked the second-stage agreement with democracy in Hong Kong, and believes that there will be a big rebound in the central government, which will further pressure the yuan, but it is unlikely that the yuan will pass 7.2.
Material sinks between 108 and 111
The yen, which has experienced a large decline in recent months, is estimated to be relatively stable this year. Lu Churen believes that in the short term, the Wuhan epidemic will allow some funds to flow into Japanese currency to avoid risks. In the medium and long term, the Tokyo Olympics, the Japanese government ’s 26 trillion yen plan to revitalize the Japanese economy, and the recent increase in the Japanese central bank ’s forecast of the Japanese economy are all positive for the yen.
Wen Zhuopei believes that the risk aversion has decreased recently, which has brought some pressure on the Japanese currency. However, the Bank of Japan has always refused to implement quantitative easing to support the yen exchange rate. It is believed that the yen will rise and fall between the 108 and 110.8 levels.
The Japanese currency has experienced a large decline earlier, but two experts estimate that the yen will stabilize. (Reuters)
Differences in US and European outlook
For the dollar and euro market outlook, the two experts have great differences. Lu Churen is bearish on the euro and optimistic about the US dollar, and the US dollar index is expected to regain 100 in the second half of the year. He explained that he was very optimistic about the U.S. dollar because the U.S. economic performance was indeed better than elsewhere, especially in Europe. In addition, Trump threatened to use Europe as a new battlefield for protectionist trade wars. He believed that it would hit the European economy. If the euro is under pressure for a long time, the US dollar index will benefit the most.
Wen Zhuopei is optimistic about the euro and bearish on the dollar. He pointed out that the European economy is indeed weak, but the worst situation is expected to have passed. Although the European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) continues to fall below the 50-point line, it has improved. With the easing of the Sino-US trade conflict, the European manufacturing industry is expected to stabilize and the European service industry performs well. The PMI number is above 50 . "And as the European economy continues to improve, does the European Central Bank really need to print 20 billion euros a month to buy debt? Can it be reduced? This year, the most optimistic currency of the euro is expected to rise to 1.15 yuan at the end of the year." Whether the war will break out, Wen Zhuopei believes that in order to avoid damaging the US economy and Trump ’s election, it is expected that Europe and the United States will have a small chance of breaking a trade war this year.
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