Geotechnical Engineering expects extreme weather to become more common and will study landslide early warning measures

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Written by: Huang Weilun

2020-01-28 00:00

Under the influence of global warming, many experts predict that extreme weather will become more common and prevent it from happening. The Geotechnical Engineering Office has developed a landslide index early to reflect the risk of landslides caused by heavy rainfall. Commissioner Pan Weiqiang said that although there have been no heavy rains in Hong Kong in the past 10 years, the landslide index has not reached a very high or very high level, but extreme weather is expected to come in the future, and we cannot take it lightly, and we hope that the index can be used as an early warning.

Pan Weiqiang also pointed out that although the super typhoon mangosteen in 2018 caused a lot of impact on society, but because the rainfall was not particularly heavy at that time, the risk of landslides indicated by the index did not reach very high and extremely high levels. He said that since 1985, the highest index was the heavy rain on Lantau Island in June 2008, and two people died.

In June 2008, a severe rainstorm occurred on Lantau Island and a landslide occurred in the Tai O New Village. (Courtesy of Geotechnical Engineering Office)

The Geotechnical Engineering Agency receives an average of 300 landslide reports each year, most of which are caused by heavy rain. The director of the department, Pan Weiqiang, stated that the prescription developed a landslide index based on the rainfall distribution, rainfall range and slope wave distribution in the past 24 hours. He added that starting from October last year, the index was generally released on the website of the Geotechnical Engineering Office immediately after the landslip warning was cancelled. The index was described as calculating the magnitude of an earthquake and reflecting the landslide caused by the torrential rain after a heavy rain. risk.

Pan Weiqiang pointed out that there is no upper limit for the index, and the risk above 100 is extremely high. Since 1985, there have been 3 related records, each of which has killed people. The highest index was the heavy rain in Lantau in June 2008. 2,500 cases of natural hillside landslides, 2 people died, with an index of 126; followed by heavy rain in August 2005, 1 person died in Furongshan Village, with an index of 106; the third time was a protective soil for Guanlonglou in 1994 The rainstorm that collapsed the wall, the index reached 103, 5 people died.

Pan Weiqiang pointed out that in June 2008, heavy rain fell on Lantau Island. (Photo by Huang Weilun)

Pan Weiqiang continued to point out that the risk of the index below 10 is low; 10 to 50 is high, a total of 74 cases since 1985; 51 to 100 is a high, a total of 8 cases. He said that although the super typhoon mangosteen in 2018 severely affected the society and the traffic was more paralyzed, at the time "the wind was strong, but the rain was very heavy", so the index was only 24, which described "the magnitude 7 earthquake." , Only for levels 4 and 5. "

However, the index is only released after the landslip warning is cancelled. Pan Weiqiang said that the index is indeed not used as a warning and is studying how to achieve the purpose of early warning. The University of Science and Technology has been commissioned for related research earlier, but there is no specific timetable. He expressed the hope that the public would first understand the index, and also study what security measures are in place to achieve an early warning.

Since 1985, there have been three heavy rains with an index exceeding 100. (Courtesy of Geotechnical Engineering Office)

Looking to the future, Pan Weiqiang said that although there have been no heavy rains in the past 10 years, in terms of megatrends, there will be more extreme weather. For example, in 2018, extreme rains occurred in western Japan and more than 200 people died. The authorities appealed to 8 million people. Evacuate and consider it necessary to live in peace. He also said that more and more hillsides are more dangerous, and he emphasized that the government alone cannot consolidate the slopes to prevent landslides, reminding the public to be vigilant. It reminds that when a rainstorm or landslip warning comes into effect, you should stay at home or in a safe place. If your residence is near a slope, you should stay on the higher floor of the house. When outdoors, you should avoid staying under the slope.

Looking forward to the future, Pan Weiqiang said that although there has been no heavy rain in the past 10 years, in terms of megatrends, it is necessary to live in peace. (Photo by Huang Weilun)

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