Io disagree that Trump is the most pro-Israeli president ever • The word "peace" returns to the lexicon • The goal in the coming days: to lower the height of flames on the ground • Commentary
IDF forces near the border of the Gaza Strip
There is one thing that cannot be disagreed with: Donald Trump is the most pro-Israeli president who has ever been in the White House. A modern Santa Claus who does not stop giving gifts on the State of Israel, and not just at Christmas.
The Century Plan is another gift Israel has received. Not by the plan - which is, of course, interpretations and controversies and question marks - but of the US's ever-stronger and stronger support for the State of Israel and its future as a Jewish state that will exist within safe borders. It is embodied in at least one more line: The Israeli lexicon has the word "hello".
But life in the Middle East is not glittering rituals and statements in the White House. They are a tough, everyday reality that will now be put to the test. And after the dust settles, the parties - Israeli and Palestinian - will need to act mindfully, knowing that every move can have far-reaching implications.
The Palestinians will reject the plan, no doubt about it. Anyway, they don't stand a chance on Trump's list of conditions. But if they curb the curb of violence, they could not only push Israel into unilateral actions that set reality on the ground, but also turn against them the little sympathy they still have for some beers in the world.
• Bennett: "Don't settle for partial sovereignty - take everything"
• Century Plan Revealed: US Will Recognize Settlements, United Jerusalem Will Remain Capital of Israel
• Netanyahu following the publication of the Centennial Plan: "We will bring sovereignty to government approval on Sunday"
• Fury in the Arab world: "Jerusalem not for sale"
Abu Mazen may see this as a heroic end to his role in Palestinian history, but could lead (with considerable likelihood) to the collapse of the PA and possibly even the rise of Hamas in its place.
Israel should also avoid escalating actions. On the eve of the election campaign, it was expected that votes should be taken, here and now, for all the gifts Trump has given, but it is doubtful that this is truly an Israeli interest: not only because things can be done neatly by an elected government after the election, but the American president has also seen in his vision Agreements and negotiations between the parties.
On Tuesday's visit to the USSR, the Defense Minister and the Chief of Staff were presented with an assessment of the IDF's situation for the day after the Trump program was published. The army presented a wide range of options, from complete indifference on Palestinian street to a third intifada. The assessment factors made it clear that unilateral Israeli moves would have an impact. Much about the reality on the ground; a major concern is that the King of Jordan will cancel or freeze the peace agreement in order to preserve his rule.
In the meantime, we are expected to see an increase in Palestinian street violence. The Authority has an interest in this, to show a semblance of popular opposition to the program, but it is doubtful whether she has any interest in getting things out of control at this time. The IDF is preparing for this (meanwhile, only a minor reinforcement of one battalion was carried out in the Jordan Valley), although Palestinian casualties are likely to be avoided so as not to escalate the winds.
Gaza, in fact, is expected to remain quiet now. Hamas continues to push for a deal with Israel - this week it finally received the stockpile of drugs it promised - and prefers that the fighting be fought in the West Bank. Thus, he will not be accused of tarping on the plan, and may benefit from further weakening of Abu Mazen's status, en route to implementing his plan to take over the West Bank.
Efforts will be made in the coming days to cool the winds on the ground. However, the reality of the acts will be shaped, and in the current period the temptation of both parties to take grandiose actions - may be great.
The Palestinians would do well if they were kept away from breaking the tools and destroyed with their own hands any chance of realizing their dream to a Palestinian state; Israel would do well if it did not take steps that would lead the other party to do so.