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ClearSpace-1, a space cleaning 0:36
(CNN) - There is a possibility that two inactive satellites currently in low Earth orbit collide on Wednesday over the US, according to the LeoLabs space debris tracking service.
If the two satellites collide with each other, the collision will result in thousands of pieces of small space debris that would pose a massive risk to other satellites in space.
LeoLabs tweeted Monday that astronomers are monitoring the approach of two-decade-old satellites, which will be found at a distance of 13 to 87 meters between them at 6:39 p.m. EST. There is a 1 in 1,000 probability that the two collide.
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While 1 in 1,000 seems very unlikely, that probability poses an extremely high risk in the space industry. Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told CNN that the likelihood of satellites colliding is "extremely alarming."
The large size of the combined satellites increases the possibility of a collision, according to LeoLabs.
2 / On Jan 29 at 23:39:35 UTC, these two objects will pass close by one another at a relative velocity of 14.7 km / s (900km directly above Pittsburgh, PA). Our latest metrics on the event show a predicted miss distance of between 15-30 meters. pic.twitter.com/Hlb1KeQ50U
- LeoLabs, Inc. (@LeoLabs_Space) January 27, 2020
"It's not so unlikely," McDowell said. "We start to worry when it's 1 in 10,000, so 1 in 1,000 is unusual and could actually be much worse than that."
The two inactive satellites are NASA's IRAS space telescope launched in 1983 and the experimental spy satellite GGSE-4 of the US Naval Research Laboratory, launched in 1967.
The satellites will cross Wednesday night at about 899 kilometers above Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, at almost 53,108 kilometers per hour. Since both satellites are inactive, astronomers have no way of communicating with them and starting maneuvers.
"This type of information means the rapid commercialization and expansion of the international community in space," LeoLabs CEO Dan Ceperley told CNN.
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"Today there are more than 60 space agencies, which are expanding rapidly in space sectors in countries like New Zealand, and it is important that this community develop best practices to create a sustainable economy that will last for generations to come."
Why is it really bad news for space
The last time a massive collision occurred was in 2009 when an inactive Russian communications satellite collided with an active communications satellite, resulting in 2,000 pieces of debris and thousands of smaller pieces.
"The concern is that we will begin to see a chain reaction where all satellites attack each other with shrapnel and space is unusable," McDowell told CNN.
“People need to worry about this because we depend on space for many things today, so even if you never go to space you are using space technology with things like GPS, internet and satellite communications. There is much to worry about. ”
McDowell compares the collision with a one-ton truck hitting a person at 160 kilometers per hour; If the satellites collided, it would result in "100,000 times more energy than that."
Due to the enormous amount of energy involved, if the satellites touch each other, a hypersonic shock wave will pass through both of them, reducing them to debris that will then spread to their orbits.
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While the debris will not reach Earth, it will pose a risk to other satellites in space, increasing the likelihood of additional collisions that will hinder the launching of satellites and the execution of space operations.
There are currently 250,000 pieces of debris in the low Earth orbit, Ceperley told CNN. These remains remain in orbit for decades, and even centuries.
“It's like the oceans. Humans began to think 'this is big and empty, we can throw away any waste we want and it will never be a problem,' ”said McDowell. "It's only when things get really bad and almost too late to fix that we start to worry."
While everyone can expect the two satellites to cross without colliding, if they do, we will have much more garbage to clean in space.
Satellites