[Wuhan Pneumonia] City University: If 300,000 Hong Kong people return to Hong Kong from the Mainland, the number of confirmed cases will increase by 222 in two weeks.

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Written by: Hou Cailin

2020-01-31 17:05

The outbreak of the new coronavirus continued, with 12 cases confirmed in Hong Kong and more than 9,600 cases nationwide. Ruan Xiangyu, an assistant professor in the Department of Biomedicine of City University, speculated that Hong Kong people will return to Hong Kong from the Mainland one after another during the Lunar New Year holidays. If 300,000 people return to Hong Kong from the Mainland between the 29th of this month and the 2nd of the next month, the average incubation period is 8 days It can be estimated that in the next two weeks, Hong Kong will add 222 new cases, including 56.7 imported cases and 165.5 second wave infections.

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Yuan Guoyong, chair professor of the Department of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, said earlier that 200,000 to 300,000 people will return to Hong Kong from the Mainland one after another on the 4th (28th), and more confirmed cases will be expected in Hong Kong.

Ruan Xiangyu used the mathematical model of Imperial College London in the United Kingdom as the basis and combined epidemiology to estimate that when 200,000 people return to Hong Kong from mainland provinces and cities outside Hubei from 29th to 2nd of this month, it will bring about 15.4 imported cases. Based on a 5-day incubation period for patients and 2.92 infections per person, it is estimated that about 45 people will be infected within 8.4 days. Adding the incubation period, it is expected that about 60 new cases will be created in Hong Kong in 2 weeks.

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Ruan Xiangyu also pointed out that if the situation is poor, the number of returning to Hong Kong reaches 300,000, and the average incubation period of the patient is 8 days, it can be estimated that it will bring a total of 222.2 new cases, including 56.7 imported cases and 165.5 second wave infection cases. Ruan also pointed out that the prediction did not take into account the input of super communicators, and if the super communicators could not be identified, it would be difficult to control the epidemic.

Ruan Xiangyu said that based on the confirmed cases of the provinces and cities in the Mainland on the 26th of this month, it is estimated that as of 26th, there were actually 751 cases in Beijing, while there were 651 cases in Shanghai and 620 cases in Guangzhou. The outbreak rate of these three cities reached 60% to 70%. Ruan estimates that as of the 26th, there were 448 confirmed cases in nearby Shenzhen, and the outbreak rate reached more than 40% to 50%. Regarding whether the customs clearance should be comprehensive, Ruan pointed out that the Hong Kong Government needs to consider the actual risks of each city in the Mainland, and should also calculate the number of imported cases in each city, and high-risk areas can consider customs clearance.

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Wuhan Pneumonia City University