Santiago Fioriti
02/08/2020 - 22:44
- Clarín.com
- Politics
Paris was a party , Alberto Fernández might be thinking. Far the postcard of just 72 hours ago begins to remain. France was the last scale of the President of a long tour of Europe that left him an interesting photo album with several of the world's leading leaders and promises of help for debt renegotiation. From Pope Francis to Angela Merkel and from Emmanuel Macron to the King of Spain. The arrival in Buenos Aires forced him to focus on a less distant and much less technical issue for the citizen than the negotiation with the bondholders and the International Monetary Fund. Eighteen million retirees, pensioners and beneficiaries of social allowances await a decision: What will be, in the end, the increase that was agreed for March? Or, to be precise, how much will the adjustment climb?
The theme takes the form of a hot coal in the office of the president. Many interpret that it could be a hinge in its management. A sign outward, but also into its heterogeneous political force. During his stay in Europe, the head of the ANSeS, Alejandro Vanoli; the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán; and Labor, Claudio Moroni, exchanged calls and chats and made different schemes and proposals. A menu of options that also kept Fernandez's political and intimate confidence officials on alert.
Alberto met with Vanoli and Guzmán at the Casa Rosada on Friday, as soon as he returned to Argentina, and discussed the matter with Moroni and the chief of staff, Santiago Cafiero. "We all think, but he will put the final number ," one of them told Clarin . The announcement is imminent. And there are frictions, of course. The blanket is short. An albertista who always moves in the shadows, but who is never left out of the big decisions, affirms without euphemisms: “ The only thing we cannot do is shit those who charge the minimum. It would be an attempt against our own electoral base. ”
The technicians look at the United States and ask to address the deficit. Some said inside doors that the state coffers do not even guarantee the rise of 11.56% for the lowest income. But the jealous of the presidential image warns about the risks of an adjustment in the most vulnerable sector and even in the gap of men and women who have incomes above the minimum but can barely survive what they earn.
Fernández studies alternatives but, unlike his predecessor, he prefers to pay the cost of a rearrangement before the first hundred days . His obsession today is to close the renegotiation of the debt before April, to be able to kick the maturities of interest and capital for at least two years and generate the climate for the economy to grow again or, at least, so that consumption can be recreated . He feels that creditors begin to take him off the image of Cristina Kirchner. That is why there was pressure on Axel Kicillof for the Province to pay the maturity of 250 million dollars and not fall into default. Fact: at one of the meetings of the last hours, the President said that the Monetary Fund is very enthusiastic about the pension reform that his administration has faced.
It is worth stopping at the numbers and the background to understand why the issue is so sensitive. At the request of Mauricio Macri, Congress passed Law 27,426 in December 2017, which stated that the salaries of retirees would be calculated on 70% of inflation and 30% regarding the rise in formal salaries. The adjustment was quarterly. The opposition, at that time led by Kirchnerism and the left gave a hard battle in the streets to curb the law - there were serious incidents in the demonstration in front of the Parliament, injured, an unpublished rain of stones and a tension in the enclosure that faced to the legislators as rarely - and denounced that this regime put in check the retirees.
According to these regulations, the passive class had to charge an increase of 11.56% next month and in June -according to inflation and the evolution of formal wages in the fourth quarter of 2019-, a figure close to 12% . "Unstoppable," Fernandez said in his latest appearances. And he again described Macri as irresponsible. More: he says that the presidents with whom he met in Europe - which are the same as courting the PRO leader - also question him for his management.
Pope Francis and Minister Martín Guzmán. There was support from the Vatican to the Government.
Fernández argues that the economy is a bigger calamity than he imagined. Perhaps it is a way of explaining why it went from promising a 20 percent increase in campaign for all retirees since December 10 to sweep the schedule that established the macro mobility. Perhaps Baglini's recurring theorem applies: the further one is from power, the more irresponsible the statements are; The closer, the more sensible they become. Baglini himself summed it up a few weeks ago in an interview conducted by Gustavo Bazzan for this newspaper: "Alberto is fulfilling every step of my theorem to the letter." Another question: What will Fernandez do with privilege retirements? Will you eliminate them or just limit them?
The albertismo insists that what it will look for with the next increases will be “shrink the pyramid” . It is not defined, but a version realized yesterday that, to make up the cimbronazo, the Government will end up granting a greater increase to the one that transcended for those who earn less. This is half of the passive class, which today receives an income of $ 14,067.93, or 60% if non-contributory pensions are included. This could be done from the granting of a fixed percentage, equal for all, plus a certain sum, which some place around 1,200 pesos. Others, however, advised that the increase be directly a fixed sum, without a fixed percentage and without distinction of income.
What is at stake is the global increase. It is clear that it will not reach 11.56% . Casa Rosada intends to save about 100,000 million pesos this year. Within the Front of All some people sting the word save. “We were not voted to come to make adjustments. That's what Macri was for , ”they reason.
The opposition could find a place to pierce the official account just two months after the change of mandate. And it could be folded to the lawsuits that could arise from retirees if the acquired rights are not respected. Informal talks already talk about accompanying any demonstration or protest that could arise spontaneously. Although not everyone thinks the same way. The radicals are on guard because they believe that certain progressive slogans could be disputed to the current power. For the macristas it is more difficult: many still think that they fell short with the adjustment - or that it was late and bad - and that Alberto Fernández is on the right track. Paradoxes of the new era.