Politics
Written by: Zheng Baosheng
2020-02-12 21:25
Last updated: 2020-02-12 21:25New coronavirus-induced Wuhan pneumonia spreads everywhere, and there are still confirmed cases every day. Liang Zhuowei, dean of the University of Hong Kong School of Medicine and chair professor of the School of Public Health, reckons that if the epidemic cannot be controlled, it may eventually affect 60% of the world's population.
For example, 60% of the world's infected deaths must be high
The World Health Organization said earlier that cases of illness that had not visited China worldwide could be just the tip of the iceberg. In an interview with The Guardian, Liang Zhuowei agreed with the WHO, stating that "the most important thing is to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg."
Many experts believe that each patient can infect an average of 2.5 people, with an incidence rate of 60 to 80%.
Liang Zhuowei pointed out that 60% of the world's people are infected, and even if the death rate is only 1%, the virus can kill a large number of people.
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The WHO meeting in Geneva brought together global experts and government personnel, and some Chinese and Taiwanese experts participated through video conferences.
Liang Zhuowei attended the World Health Conference, where he raised the main question now as to how large the global case growth is, followed by whether the stringent measures currently adopted by China are effective, and if they are effective, other countries can follow suit.
Epidemics may follow wave after wave of attention to Chinese measures
Liang Zhuowei pointed out that epidemiologists are trying to calculate what might happen: "Is 60 to 60% of the world's population infected? Not necessarily, or the outbreaks are coming one after another. The virus may evolve to reduce lethality because If it kills everyone, it will die as a result, and it will not help the virus. "
He suggested that experts are paying attention to China's measures: "Are these large-scale public health measures in China, including community isolation and traffic control, effective? If they are effective, may we adopt these measures globally, or will they not be available elsewhere?"
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China's experience promotes global difficulties
Liang Zhuowei said that there are many difficulties in implementing these details: "Assuming that China's measures are effective, we have to consider how long it will take to close schools? How long may the entire city be closed? How long can you keep people from entering shopping malls What about it? Besides, once the restrictions are lifted, will the virus break out again? These are very real questions. "
And if China's "cities closure" measures are invalid, the reality is even more unacceptable, that is, the epidemic situation cannot be effectively controlled.
Advocate continuous testing of quarantined persons to ensure that they do not take the virus out
Liang Zhuowei pointed out that it is very important to suppress the epidemic situation at present, and it is a big problem for infected people to have no symptoms for a period of time. He pointed out that quarantine measures are necessary, and at the same time, people who have been quarantined should not take the virus out. It is recommended that the quarantined person be tested every other day, and ideally every two days. If a diagnosis is made, Everyone needs to be re-quarantined for 14 days.
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Wuhan Zhuo Wei Liang Zhuowei
