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[Wuhan pneumonia] WHO consultant: Two-thirds of the world's population could end up infected

2020-02-14T08:11:58.253Z

Ira Longini, a consultant with the World Health Organization, warned that two-thirds of the world's population could be infected with the new coronavirus. He said, "Isolate cases and



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Written by: Wang Zhonghui

2020-02-14 16:00

Last updated: 2020-02-14 16:01

The pneumonia outbreak caused by the new coronavirus in Wuhan has spread all over the world, and many countries have strengthened their epidemic prevention, but Ira Longini, a consultant of the World Health Organization, warns that the situation may worsen, and two-thirds of the world ’s population Eventually, you may become infected with a new coronavirus. He also said that quarantine measures could slow the spread of the virus, but argued that "isolating patient cases and close contacts would not stop the virus."

The United States sent charter flights to evacuate overseas Chinese from Wuhan, and the passenger plane returned to Texas on February 7. The Centers for Disease Control said on February 13 that the latest patient returned to China by charter flight last week. (AP)

↓↓↓ For more pictures of the epidemic situation in various countries, please click to enlarge to view the gallery:

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Billions more infections possible

Bloomberg reported on February 13 that with the sharp increase in new cases of coronavirus in China, top infectious disease scientist and WHO consultant Langini has tracked research on the spread of the virus in China, and his estimates indicate that the number of people infected may eventually be greater than the current There are billions more than the official statistics of about 60,000 people.

The data model used by Langini shows that each infected person usually spreads the disease to two or three other people. He said that due to the lack of rapid detection, some people were relatively mild, making it difficult to track the spread of the virus.

Langini says that even if there is a way to reduce the virus's transmission by half, it still means that about one third of the world's population is infected.

Useless?

Bloomberg reports that if the spread of the virus is close to the above estimates, it will show the limits of China's strict epidemic control measures. China isolates the residential areas of tens of millions of people.

Langini also believes that unless transmission changes, monitoring and control will stop there. He believes that "isolating patient cases and isolating close contacts will not stop the virus," Langini said. It may slow the spread of the virus, but there are opportunities for the virus to spread in China and elsewhere before quarantine measures take effect.

Epidemic situation of pneumonia in various countries in Wuhan: The picture shows the "Vistadan" cruise ship arriving at Sihanoukville terminal in Cambodia on February 13. (Reuters)

↓↓↓ For more epidemic photos from around the world, please click to enlarge:

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[Wuhan Pneumonia] Okinawa, Japan 1 confirmed 1 suspected to be related to the cruise ship "Diamond Princess"

[Wuhan Pneumonia] The first confirmed case in Okinawa, Japan, a 60-year-old female taxi driver "Zhongzhao"

[Wuhan pneumonia and epidemic situation] Chinese Embassy in Japan: Diamond Princess has 11 Hong Kong people infected

[Wuhan pneumonia] Indonesia's efforts to ensure that the Asian Pure Land leaks or is it effective in epidemic prevention?

Langini is not the only one warning that the coronavirus might spread more. Researcher Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London estimates that up to 50,000 people in China could be infected with the new coronavirus every day.

Liang Zhuowei, Dean of the University of Hong Kong School of Medicine and Chair Professor of the School of Public Health, also calculated that if the epidemic is uncontrollable, it may eventually affect 60% of the world's population.

Other experts: or need more data to prove

David Heymann, an infectious disease specialist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said more data needs to be collected to better understand the spread of the new coronavirus. He said that he saw that some countries outside China had well controlled the outbreak.

Hyman said "I'm not saying they (experts like Langini and Liang Zhuowei) were wrong." He said "I mean that as more information emerges, these models will be further refined."

[Wuhan pneumonia and epidemic situation] Chinese Embassy in Japan: Diamond Princess has 11 Hong Kong people infected

[Wuhan Pneumonia] Okinawa, Japan 1 confirmed 1 suspected to be related to the cruise ship "Diamond Princess"

[Wuhan pneumonia] Indonesia's efforts to ensure that the Asian Pure Land leaks or is it effective in epidemic prevention?

[Wuhan pneumonia] Will new coronavirus outbreak outside China?

Wuhan pneumonia prevention knowledge

Source: hk1

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