" We are on a real thunderclap!" dropped Frédéric Dabi on the set of "Talk Le Figaro " Friday. " We are a month away from the vote, " he said. The presidential majority will have to quickly find a replacement for Benjamin Griveaux who has given up.
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The deputy director general of Ifop stresses that the determining factor of the vote in a municipal election - " and what's more in Paris ", he specifies - " it is a cocktail between a project, an assessment when one is mayor outgoing, and above all an incarnation ”. Even if among the 17 leaders, some are known, " it is incredible to lose the head of the main list so soon from the vote, " notes the political scientist.
Two possible options
According to him, two options are possible: a ministerial choice with Marlène Schiappa, or that of a local elected official like Delphine Bürkli or Pierre-Yves Bournazel. Nevertheless, " this remains an extremely hard blow ," he insists, stressing how this Parisian campaign is " a real way of the cross for the macronie ". The observer makes the analogy with what happened in April 1999 when, two months from the Europeans, overnight, Philippe Séguin had withdrawn from the head of the RPR list in favor of Nicolas Sarkozy.
Can a woman replace Benjamin Griveaux? " This election is already a fight for women, " notes Dabi, citing the protagonists Rachida Dati and Anne Hidalgo.We're going to be on an extremely short campaign. The crime can benefit Rachida Dati with whom the candidate macronist was in competition to capture the right-wing electorate
Who benefits from this earthquake? “We are going to be on an extremely short campaign. The crime can benefit Rachida Dati with whom the macronist candidate was in competition to capture the right-wing electorate , ”analyzes Frédéric Dabi. But he thinks that " it can also change the situation in the distribution of the hoard of the Macron electorate of the presidential elections of 2017". A hoard that represented 34.8% of voters in Paris. In the last Ifop-Fiducial survey of January 20, 2020, Dabi recalls this distribution. " Emmanuel Macron's electorate is completely fractured ", 30% would go to Anne Hidalgo, 28% should go to Benjamin Griveaux, and 21% to Cédric Villani. Even if the cards are going to be redistributed the day after Griveaux's dropout, what about Villani's position? " He broke up in a certain way by saying no to the President of the Republic, " observes the Deputy Director General of Ifop. But the candidate could now be "a sort of receptacle for Macron voters who want to alternate ."
Moreover, for the observer, this is the major question of this end of the campaign: is there, yes or no, a personality who can embody this election and promote alternation with Anne Hidalgo? The answer is clear, relentless: " Today, this personality does not exist." He even says that with the withdrawal of Benjamin Griveaux, "it's even stronger ".
Accustomed to political life and its twists and turns, Frédéric Dabi presumes that such an intimate affair will not impact the image of the President of the Republic. " Even if Benjamin Griveaux is close to Emmanuel Macron, (…) the French do so ," he said, adding however " it's a very bad sequence for macronie in Paris". "(...) This municipal election is the worst there is, " he insists. Beyond the capital, he believes that " LREM's ambitions have been lowered " and is even struggling to find a city that could "go to En Marche" .
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Where is Emmanuel Macron's new world promise? " It is not there ", decides the political scientist for whom the popularity of the president rests on two big levers: "transformation with reforms" , and " distinction compared to his predecessors ".
If Macron " acts more than Holland ", and " in a less scattered way than Sarkozy ", the succession of bad sequences should weigh on the end of the five-year term. However, specifies the expert, " the French will judge on the results. And then the France of social networks, it is not the France of our opinion polls. Remember that municipal elections are " stability elections ", where the rule is generally to renew the leavers.