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Nature's decline could cost $ 15 trillion by 2050

2020-02-14T19:29:41.206Z


A WWF study analyzes for the first time the consequences of nature's decline on world economies. Without efficient mobilization, the climate crisis could cost several billion dollars a year.


"Long live nature, long live the Republic, and long live France" , concluded the Head of State last Thursday before the agents of the French Office for Biodiversity. Traveling to Chamonix, Emmanuel Macron has established himself as the “defender of a nature in danger” , in front of a sea of ​​ice amputated 120 meters thick. The day before, the international non-profit organization WWF, published a new study on the global economic consequences of the decline of nature. France ranks tenth in the ranking of the countries most affected by financial losses.

Read also: Macron strives to display its green turn at the foot of Mont Blanc

The almost apocalyptic scenario that loomed for the environment over the century now has its economic chapter. If by 2050 nothing is done to stem the decline of nature, it could amount to at least $ 479 billion a year in terms of world GDP, or almost $ 15 billion. here in 2050. This is revealed by this study conducted in 140 countries in collaboration with experts from the American universities of Purdue and Minnesota. Two years of research and development thanks to the unprecedented contribution of scientists, economists and political experts from around the world.

The report bases its demonstration on two scenarios. A first which represents the world economic situation if the status quo of “business as usual” (to understand “as usual, without changing anything” ) remains as it is. And a second, more optimistic, “global conservation” which simulates an effective and lasting change in industry and commerce. "Maintaining '' business as usual '' (increase in greenhouse gases, excessive exploitation of resources, overconsumption ...) will not only be catastrophic for nature," write the experts. " It will also have undesirable economic effects. On the other hand, ambitious efforts to protect and restore nature will significantly improve economic results. It is still possible to reverse the trend, with better land use and better preservation of ecosystems and biodiversity, ”states the report. Experts estimate an increase in global GDP to $ 490 billion a year if states turn to these more sustainable systems and conserve " the ecosystem services of natural environments" .

Read also: The Citizen Climate Convention: what you need to know about this new "big debate"

The largest economic losses - $ 327 billion a year - are thought to be from coastal erosion. It is therefore not surprising that France - the 2nd largest maritime power in the world - is one of the countries most affected economically. As the protective biodiversity of coral reefs is on the verge of extinction, this phenomenon, coupled with rising sea levels, would have a devastating effect on cultivated areas and coastal infrastructure.

Other services provided by nature will also be severely impacted if nothing is done. The report figures the losses inherent in deforestation at $ 128 billion: with shrinking forests, just as many trees that do not suck up CO2 and will no longer play their natural role in reducing carbon. The food and agricultural sectors could experience “price increases for products such as wood (+ 8%), cotton (6%), oil seeds (+ 4%) or even fruits and vegetables (+ 3%) " . A dizzying rise in prices which is explained by the scarcity of water (four people out of ten already suffer from it worldwide according to the UN), and the disappearance of pollinating insects.

The United States would be the most impacted in the scenario
"Business as usual" : the leading economic power would suffer a loss of 83 billion dollars per year by 2050 " an amount equivalent to the totality of Guatemala's annual GDP" . Followed by Japan (80 billion) and the United Kingdom (21 billion). France, it would lose $ 8.4 billion per year (a figure that equals Somalia's GDP). Conversely, in the optimistic scenario, "China should see its annual GDP increase by 43.1 billion, mainly because it is a country where a significant part of its economy is based on oil crops dependent on pollinators" , explains the report. Thus, increasing pollination services in a sustainable manner would increase the country's competitiveness, thanks to “an increase in supply and therefore a fall in prices” . This is of course just one example among many.

Experts here hope to have struck a chord when attacking state portfolios and aspire to "catalyze global action to reverse the decline of nature" , which would benefit all countries.

Above, the first scenario in the event of climate inaction, below, the second in the event of changes to preserve ecosystem services. The bar below the maps represents the value of GDP in% which fluctuates according to the scenario and its possible consequences on the economies (from left to right, from negative, to positive). Screenshot Future Global Reports

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2020-02-14

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