In the blink of an eye on Putin, Assad explores Erdogan's boundaries in Idlib

Fighting in the last rebel stronghold has created an unprecedented wave of displacements since the beginning of the war, leading to unusual direct clashes between Turkey and Syria. Ankara and Moscow accuse each other of breaking the agreements, and the Trump administration is trying to wedge allies

In the blink of an eye on Putin, Assad explores Erdogan's boundaries in Idlib

Over the course of the nine years of the war, the war seemed to wane a few times, only to burst into full force and break its shaking records itself.

Since December, with aggressive perseverance and constant brutality, Syrian and Russian armies have been fighting in the rebel areas of Idlib province. The last place for the rebels is the coveted Assad award, which promised throughout the war to take over all the territories lost in the rebellion against him. A statement that until a few years ago sounded fanciful, growing since the Russians came to rescue the tyrant from a similar end to those of other Arab leaders throughout the "Arab Spring."

What has made it difficult, and still difficult, for the regime to repel rebels from the Turkish-bordering province is the presence in the territory of that scanty neighbor to the north. Turkey remains, in fact, the only country still supporting opposition forces in Syria, after the rest - the Gulf states and the United States - abandoned them as they realized that there was no longer a chance to fight the Russian air superiority. The opposing positions of Turkey and Russia have created a fierce relationship in relations after a Russian aircraft was overthrown by the Turkish Air Force in 2015, but this was in retrospect a positive turning point between Ankara and Moscow, and their leaders formed close relations with each other.

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Supports rival sides. Putin and Erdogan in Moscow, August (Photo: Reuters)

Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan visit Moscow outskirts, August 27, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

As part of the friendship of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a series of agreements to stop Idlib fighting and joint forces patrol between the rebels and Assad's army and the Shiite militias were formulated. Furthermore, Erdogan even turned his back on the United States when he decided to purchase S-400 defense systems from Moscow, despite US sanctions threats and moved away from the West on a series of issues.

When Turkey embarked on another campaign against the Kurdish forces - the third since 2018 - Russia did not arrest Russia, which exploited the hasty withdrawal of US forces from the region by President Donald Trump's order to be based in northeastern Syria. Moscow has also prevented clashes between Turkish and rebel forces and the Kurds and Assad's army in another ceasefire agreement, but as befits the Syria ceasefire, few believed they would last long.

Since December, what remains of the agreement in Idlib is just the fire. Assad gradually pushed the rebels out of their outposts since the beginning of the uprising, and within three months some 800,000 people tried to leave their homes - the largest wave of displaced people in such a period of time since the 2011 conflict broke out. But the most dramatic development occurred when at least 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in clashes with the Syrian army in about a week and a half. Direct encounters between the parties were very rare throughout the war, and the latter were the deadliest in them.

Developments worry the regime. Convoy of Turkish vehicles in Idlib, this week (Photo: Reuters)

Turkish army armored vehicles in Idlib province, Syria, February 11, 2020 (Photo: Reuters)

With his dignity at stake, Erdogan did not spare his foam from Russia. He knows that without Putin's eye-opening, Assad would not dare to test his limits. In recent days, the Turkish president has issued a series of combative statements, such as a promise to attack regime forces everywhere in Syria if another Turkish soldier is scrapped, accusing Russia, Iran and Syria of massacres against Syrian civilians.

Licking ice cream and seeing planes: Putin and Erdogan discussed fighting at Idlib

Russia, on the other hand, was less impressed with Turkey's responsibility for the collapse of the agreement, claiming it was not fighting as promised by the "terrorist organizations" in Idlib. Moscow and Damascus do not really distinguish between the different opposition factions, but the intention is that Turkey should have removed from the territory the more radical al-Qaeda organizations. Moscow even contradicted the numbers of the Bobmast dead from the Assad army ranks that Ankara gave, claiming that there were no casualties. On the other hand, in a development that worries the regime's forces, and incidentally the Kremlin, two Assad army helicopters were dropped within a few days by the rebels. This may indicate a new weapon being used by Turkey.

American wedge

While Turkey sends thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles to Idlib, to protect its outposts established in the province as part of its agreement with Russia, the United States is trying to push a wedge between it and Moscow. Relations between two NATO companies have known ups and downs in recent years, especially because of these two overlapping arenas - the war in Syria and the alliance with Russia.

The Trump administration hastened to face Turkey after the Assad army attacks, though Ankara itself is responsible for killing civilians in Kurdish areas in the northeast. The United States is trying to convince Erdogan's regime that his and Putin's interests are incompatible with each other, not only in Syria, but also in Libya, which also supports rival sides.

The war continues to break records. Syrian DPs in Idlib area (Photo: Reuters)

Syrian Displaced People, Idlib, January 28, 2020 (Photo: Reuters)

It is highly doubtful that Ankara will return from its missile deal with Russia after the advanced air defense batteries, which cannot integrate with those of NATO, have already been deployed in its territory and are slated to launch in April. - The same is true with Turkey, as it is not about breaking the tools.

It is a test of the relationship between the two dominant leaders in the region, who embody the national sentiments in their country at a time when their popularity is faltering. They have not met since the Berlin Summit on Libya last month to whitewash things between themselves - as they have done many times in recent years - but they have been talking on the phone in recent days, and their representatives have been hectic about the situation.

Given the slim likelihood that the Turkish army will launch a widespread offensive against Russia's Russian-backed army, the current crisis may still end with a new agreement that will meet Erdogan and Putin's current interests. However, the lack of US presence in this part of Syria makes everything less predictable.