After the moment of "stupor", in the words of a Parisian official, the strategists of the HQ of the candidates for mayor of Paris began to phosphorus. What will be the consequences of the gaping hole left by the abandonment of Benjamin Griveaux, the candidate of En Marche? And of course who can lose or benefit from it?
Anne Hidalgo, at the head of the electoral race, held on Friday to a sober declaration taking "act" of the renunciation of Griveaux and calling for "respect for private life".
VIDEO. Withdrawal of Griveaux: Hidalgo calls for “respect for the privacy of families”
Same caution among environmentalists vis-à-vis a case deemed "very vague" and "very bizarre". On the side of the socialists, we recognize a complicated moment. "The disqualification of the head of the LREM list causes a huge disturbance and risks vitrifying the campaign for a certain time, analyzes a close relative of the outgoing mayor. Griveaux suited us very well, its difficulties allowed us to run our campaign on the bottom as we will continue to do. Now, we hope that it will settle quickly. "
President of the socialist group at the Town Hall, Senator Rémi Féraud remains confident: “For us, nothing changes, neither our lists, nor our project nor the spirit of our campaign. This is not the case for the outgoing mayors and for Pierre-Yves Bournazel, who had bet on Griveaux: they absolutely need a plan B. ”What if the environmentalist David Belliard was offered an alliance with LREM? “It would not make sense when he is a very strong opponent to Macron, judge Féraud. And then, do you see him making lists with the right mayors Florence Berthoux and Delphine Bürkli? "
"Griveaux was already weakened"
On the side of the Republicans, we pretend nothing. “We continue to campaign. This is Benjamin Griveaux's problem, not ours, ”we slip into the ranks of the Parisian right. The abandonment of the candidate LREM does not seem to really move the troops, especially since this crisis within the macronie could, perhaps, make return to the house of the voters "lost".
"It is possible that part of the right-wing electorate will come back to us, but I doubt that that will change much. Griveaux was already weakened, ”argues the party leadership. "If LREM voters say that, facing Anne Hidalgo, the only alternative is Rachida Dati, we will be delighted," agrees Geoffroy Boulard, outgoing mayor (LR) of the 17th arrondissement, where Griveaux was to appear. He deplores the "destabilization" suffered by his former direct competitor, "this one being particularly violent".
"We need an LREM vote neither too strong nor too weak"
The fact remains that the right is also not entirely interested in ensuring that LREM does not collapse too low. "If we want to have our chances in the third round, we need an LREM vote neither too strong nor too weak", observes a Parisian elected official. If she wants to hope to win, Rachida Dati must theoretically be able to count on a reservoir of non-LR "friendly" Paris advisers who would support her during the mayor's election. Even if it is not at all obvious that the elected LREM agree to vote for it.
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The irruption of the macronist vote in Paris, after 2017, had deeply disturbed the certainties of the left as of the right. One month before the first round of municipal elections, the package of its main candidate again plunges the two camps into uncertainty.