The epidemic of the new coronavirus could have a negative effect on world growth in 2020 depending on the ability of China to contain its spread, warned Sunday February 16 the director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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" For the moment, our forecast is 3.3% and there could be a reduction of 0.1 to 0.2% (...) this is a special case and I encourage everyone not to draw hasty conclusions , "said Kristalina Georgieva at the Global Women's Forum in Dubai. " There are a lot of uncertainties and we are talking about scenarios here, not projections, ask me the question in ten days, " she added, quoted by AFP.
Affirming that it was still " too early " to accurately estimate the impact of the epidemic, which left nearly 1,700 people dead, she nevertheless acknowledged that the tourism and transport sectors, among others, were already already been affected. " We do not know the exact nature of this virus, we do not know how quickly China will be able to contain it and if it will spread (more) around the world, what we do know is that it will affect global value chains , ”she told AFP.
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Wednesday, February 12, Kristalina Georgieva had indicated on the American television channel CNBC that the most likely scenario was a sharp decline in activities in China followed by a rapid recovery and a relatively limited global impact, stressing that this had the case during the epidemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed 299 people in 2002-2003.
If China succeeds in containing the epidemic, " there could be a small drop and a very rapid rebound ", she reiterated this Sunday, adding however that the weight of China in the world economy had passed " from 8% during Sras to 19% today ”.
As for China's growth, it was already slowing down naturally, said Georgieva, however stressing that " the reduction of trade tensions " between Washington and Beijing with the signing in January of a preliminary trade agreement had allowed the IMF to foresee an improvement. of its projection for 2020.
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The IMF had unveiled its latest forecasts for the world economy on January 20, then counting on a recovery (+ 3.3%, against + 2.9% in 2019) thanks in particular to a pause observed in the trade war between states United States and China. But he warned that this recovery was fragile and that renewed uncertainty could thwart the rebound.