Walla poll! NEWS: The Likud narrows gaps, the Union for the first time in double digits

Two weeks before the election, a survey by a sample institute led by Mano Geva indicates that Gantz is leading by only one mandate gap on Netanyahu. The Likud is being strengthened at the expense of the right, Lieberman has weakened and the interdisciplinary division has not changed. The majority of the public prefers more elections over a government with external support of the joint list

Walla poll! NEWS: The Likud narrows gaps, the Union for the first time in double digits

Two weeks before the election, the political system is frozen and far from decisive - but the gap between blue and white and the Likud is narrowing, and within the blocs there are small movements between the parties. This is what the Walla poll shows! NEWS and a sample institute led by Mano Geva, published today (Monday).

If elections were held today, blue and white would be the largest party with 34 seats, while the Likud would receive 33 seats - a strengthening of a mandate compared to the previous poll conducted two weeks ago. In the background of the fighting between the Likud and the right and the attacks on Defense Minister Naftali Bennett, there is a movement within the right-wing bloc - and the Likud's strengthening comes at the expense of the right, dropping from eight seats in the previous poll to seven seats in the current poll. Similarly, Labor-Bridge-Meretz strengthens the mandate compared with the previous survey, and for the first time comes in a two-figure area with ten mandates, while Israel our home is weakened by a mandate, dropping from eight to seven mandates.

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In the interdisciplinary division, however, there is no change: the right-wing ultra-Orthodox bloc has 56 seats - the Likud with 33, Shas and Torah Judaism with eight seats each, and the right with seven; the center-left bloc with 44, the joint list with 13 and Israel is our home with seven. The Jewish power of Itamar Ben Gvir is still far from blocked, but it is strengthening from 1.7% in the previous survey to 2.5% in the current survey.

If these are the results of the election, it means no one - neither Gantz nor Netanyahu - will have the necessary majority to form their dream governments: the ultra-Orthodox right is far from 61 seats, and the white-blue along with Labor-Meretz Bridge and Israel Our House have no majority, And to form a minority government - they will need the support of the joint list, a complex and politically charged option that all parties reject at this stage of the campaign.

The survey found that the majority of the public opposes the establishment of a joint support list of MKs, but in the center-left - the blue-and-white base - there is actually a majority that supports this, if it is the only option through which a fourth election can be prevented. 54% of the general public Will support the establishment of a joint external support government, even if it is the only option to prevent elections, with only 28% voting in. Resistance rises dramatically in those who define themselves as right-wing voters - with 74% opposition and only 11% support; 59% will support forming a government with joint support to prevent a fourth election, with only 22% saying they will oppose it.

Despite the veto: About a third of ultra-Orthodox voters do not rule out sitting with a government torch

The narrow gap between the Likud and the blue in the big party question is also reflected in the question of the match for Prime Minister, where a gap between Netanyahu and Gantz opens. 43% of the public think that Netanyahu is better suited than Gantz to head the next prime minister, while 35% think Gantz is better suited than Netanyahu. 16% said none, and 6% said "I don't know."

Survey editor : sample consulting and research
Date of data collection : 16-17 / 2/2020
Study population : A representative sample of the total population of Israel aged 18 and over
Number of applicants to attend : 3,486
Actual Respondents : 502
Maximum sampling error : 4.4% +
Statistical method : The survey was carried out using standard statistical methods
Sampling method : Sampling of layers and within the random sampling layers
How to conduct the survey : Phone + Internet