Three crises loom over Japan, a leading economy in the world: the bad situation of 2019; the consequences of the Chinese coronavirus, very serious for that country; and flying over both, the backdrop of a long cycle crisis.
This has to do with its competition model, its place in world trade, the vitality of its production model, its aging population and the difficulty that its economic policies, including the very lax monetary strategy, revive the pulse of demand . So in Japan it rains twice over wet.
The recent data for the last quarter of 2019 are discouraging. The economy of the Asian country fell 6.3% over the same period of the previous year, and 1.6% over the previous quarter, which doubles, for worse, the expectations of experts. Almost all the components of GDP captured, except for public spending and exports. Something that had not happened since the end of 2018.
The Japanese authorities had anticipated this setback, through an intense public intervention to increase government spending by more than 100,000 million euros, and double counting the private resources that would be added to the official stimulus program.
It was a palliative package of past evils (natural disasters) and future setbacks: the depressive effects of a VAT hike, the US trade wars and the recovery of this year's Tokyo Games. Not yet able to provide tangible results, the surprise of the effect of the coronavirus from China is added to the adverse situation. Japan, which is the second country most affected by this epidemic, records more than 400 cases diagnosed (although only one dead).
Although it is not possible to predict the final vicissitudes of the epidemic, the bad omens multiply: the IMF forecasts a decline of two tenths in the world economy and some private consultants estimate the volume reduction of the volume of more than 250,000 million euros GDP of the globe. The more serious the impact will be the closer and interrelated the affected economies are.
The Japanese authorities have done well to announce that if appropriate, they will multiply stimuli, fiscal and monetary. They do not constitute a guarantee of success, but their withdrawal would be from precipitation to failure. However, the Asian power will surely have to call itself to some general states. For what? To diagnose if your recurrent anemia needs, in addition to the measures taken, a non-complacent exploration of the growth model, export and complementary microeconomic measures.
You can follow THE COUNTRY Opinion on Facebook, Twitter or subscribe here to the Newsletter.