editorial
Written by: Hong Kong 01
2020-02-24 06:00
Last updated: 2020-02-24 06:00The Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, will read out a new Budget on Wednesday (February 26). As in the past, the community has been clamoring for "paying money". This year, the anti-revision campaign and the new type of coronavirus pneumonia have doubled. Under the attack, "spending money" has even become the consensus of major political parties. The government shoulders the heavy responsibility of managing public finances and allocating resources. "Paying money" seems simple and straightforward, but it is by no means an effective way to protect the overall interests of society, and may even violate the principle of distribution justice. It is just that the current economic situation has taken a drastic turn, and the urgent task is undoubtedly to relieve the people's plight. "Paying money" can help alleviate social anxiety. The situation is just like cancer patients. It is impossible to regain vitality without surgery, but when the pain is afflicted, morphine injection is always used to relieve the temporary pain.
It must be pointed out that "Hong Kong 01" has never agreed with the hasty "distribution of money", and is even more worried about its consensus: For the government, the short-term effect of "distribution of money" may make it light-hearted, and then lose the momentum of reform; For citizens and small businesses, adding pockets of several thousand to tens of thousands of yuan may give them a little peace of mind, but it may also cause some people to fail to see what the true test facing Hong Kong is. The deep-seated structural contradictions in Hong Kong are extremely serious, and the structure of vested interests is severely distorted, which is particularly unfavorable to vulnerable groups, including small businesses. If you think that "paying money" can solve these problems, it is naive and ignorant.
While all sectors ask the government for relief, they should think about a more important and fundamental question: "After all the money is distributed, then?" After this special period, society must not slow down, and can no longer indulge in Israel. The method of "minor repairs and minor supplements" masks the characterization. It is necessary to reflect deeply on the accumulation of disadvantages that have accumulated over the years and hindered Hong Kong's progress, and build consensus as soon as possible to promote the transformation of the economic structure. The real way out for Hong Kong lies in making good use of its huge reserves and taking advantage of its remaining advantages to carry out targeted comprehensive and deep-scale reforms. Only in this way can Hong Kong's ills be cured.
The real way out for Hong Kong is to make good use of its huge reserves and give play to its own advantages. (Photo by Ou Jiale)
Government sitting on trillions of reserves fiscal deficit is by no means a flood beast
Some people worry that "spending money" will inevitably lead to a fiscal deficit of 100 billion yuan. They even whispered that this is the "beginning of the decline" of Hong Kong. This is undoubtedly a concept change and confusion. If the government only understands "paying money" to fulfil the responsibility of distribution, it is of course "decay", but from all signs, it can be seen that the impact of this epidemic on Hong Kong may be greater than that of SARS. The industry, retail, and tourism are the first to bear the brunt. Many businesses are being forced to take unpaid leave, reduce pay, or even cut staff. In fact, the latest unemployment rate has risen to 3.4%, a new high in more than three years. As the negative impact of the anti-revision legislation and the epidemic emerges, it is believed that the unemployment rate will continue to rise. At this time, the authorities "spend money" and have a correct attitude, which will help save the citizens in the fire. Because the citizens ca n’t wait, we ca n’t help but accept the non-discriminatory “money for the whole people” that violates the principle of distribution justice. After all, the government ’s plan to “send four thousand mosquitoes” to support specific groups is unbearable. It also cost more than 300 million yuan in administrative costs. In view of this, it is better to ensure that this money can quickly and effectively fall into the pockets of the citizens than to ask the authorities to distinguish who needs assistance and who does not need it.
It must be emphasized again and again that a deficit in public finances is not necessarily "decline". Regardless of the fact that deficits are normal in times of economic downturn, they need not be regarded as flood beasts, and even conservative US traditional foundations do not exclude deficit budgets-among the countries or regions rated as the top ten freest economies in the world More than half of the budget deficits have averaged over the past three years, including Australia, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Taiwan. More importantly, although the government must manage its finances prudently, it does not mean that it must be a "shoulder." As a government with a trillion yuan “family base”, it should make good use of the resources in its hands to create more wealth for the citizens-invest boldly in new times, open up new industries, and promote economic transformation; in the current epidemic, you should increase spending To protect employment and stabilize the hearts of the people, and lay the foundation for rebirth after the epidemic. If you have to compare the baht at this time, it is really a "shoulder"!
What really worries is that "spending money" may create a kind of inertia for the whole society. "Paying money" is an extraordinary means in extraordinary times. It cannot be normalized, nor can it make officials think that as long as "paying money" can solve the problem, it can let the public "receive the voice" and let the society develop "there is money when something happens." "Pai" expectations, this will only make people short-sighted. Since the reunification, the government has "paid money" twice in 2011 and 2018, the first time after Hong Kong just emerged from the financial tsunami, and the second time after fiscal reserves exceeded one trillion. From these two experiences, it can be seen that the effect of "paying money" is only temporary and does not effectively respond to the real problems facing the society. Taking the housing distress situation as an example, according to government figures, the number of general applications on the waiting list for public housing has increased from 89,000 at the end of June 2011 to 151,900 at the end of December 2019. The number of single-person applications for the elderly increased significantly from 66,600 to 108,500. At present, the average waiting time for general applicants is as long as 5.4 years, and the waiting time for single-person applicants is as long as 3 years. Looking back now, although Zeng Junhua's "six thousand mosquitoes" made the citizens happy for a while, they did not have a significant and lasting effect on relieving people's livelihood.
The impact of this new type of pneumonia on Hong Kong may be greater than that of SARS. At this time, the government "spends money" to help save the people from fire and water. (Photo by Zhang Haowei)
The United States and Japan can learn from the comprehensive reform without delay
In the long run, Hong Kong cannot be "poor enough to have money left." Why don't we think about how to practice "internal skills" and strengthen our ability to resist adversity, so that when another political movement or epidemic occurs in the future, the society will not be rendered ineffective. The so-called "internal power" refers to the socio-economic structure, which is not superficial, but involves the deepest level. It is the key to the stability of society and the people's ability to live and work in peace. Looking around the world, many leaders regard "reform" as a magic weapon to respond to deep-seated problems, but either they cannot do it or they are not daring enough to practice "internal strength", and Hong Kong must take it seriously.
The United States is an example of reform that cannot be done. President Trump saw the dilemma of the blue collar, but he lacked the consciousness of "finding problems from himself", blindly blaming responsibilities on China, Mexico and other countries, and tried to bring the production line back through the silly tactics of trade war. United States. So far, even though some production lines have withdrawn from China, they have settled in Southeast Asia, not the United States. The North American Free Trade Agreement is also thunderous, with only a few more favorable terms for the United States, but it has not changed the United States. The trend of companies moving factories to Mexico. The reason is that Trump did not perform a "major operation" on the distorted U.S. economic structure, creating conditions for revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing industry.
Another example is Japan. Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office again in 2012, he has attempted to reverse the economic woes with the "three arrows." The first two arrows (quantitative easing and fiscal expansion) have already been fired, but the key third arrow (activating the private economy through structural reforms) has not been shown because Abe lacks the courage to shake the structure of vested interests. In this case, even though financial reforms and increased spending temporarily stimulated the economy, the structural problems such as lack of Japanese consumer confidence and an aging population have not been touched, making it impossible to get rid of the predicament since the economic bubble burst in 1990.
For Hong Kong, the United States and Japan can learn from the past: Trump ’s launch of a trade war is essentially diverting people ’s attention to domestic economic problems. The situation is like the Hong Kong government ’s “bailout” approach. Achieved results in the short term, but it only paralyzed the citizens and made them unable to see the urgent need for reform. Shinzo Abe is also a negative example. Although he has the ambition to build a "beautiful Japan", he lacks determination, just like the Hong Kong government. Cowardly declaring war on real estate hegemony, watching the deep problems continue to accumulate.
During this period, the government must fully fight the epidemic, and it should also build consensus on social reform. (Photo / Photo by Zhang Haowei)
The government must fully fight the epidemic and must consolidate the consensus on reform
Hong Kong's problems are complex, and minor repairs and tricks will not help. To break through the bottleneck, the Hong Kong government must have a comprehensive reform strategy that touches the fundamental structure. The "Budget" and the "Policy Report" should be inspired by Hong Kong's way out. It must help the public to cope with the imminent epidemic, and look to the future, to provide a way to reverse the overly singular economic structure and break the distorted vested interest structure. Clear blueprints.
To some extent, the government, the two major political parties, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong and the Democratic Party, have seen the above problems, including agreeing to use the Land Resumption Ordinance to deal with the land and housing difficulties mentioned above, which is naturally welcome. But land and housing are just one of them. Hong Kong also faces many problems such as tax system defects, education, medical care, elderly care, and transportation. As a result, fairness and justice in the economy and people's livelihood have been absent for a long time. This all requires incomparable courage and courage to solve. What we worry about is that with the voice of the people calling for "sending money," all walks of life may slowly lose focus, especially if the government does not think ahead after "sending money", and political parties do not know how to guide public opinion to consolidate reform consensus, then Like the United States and Japan, Hong Kong will have the name of reform without the reality of reform. If the society fails to break through the recognition that it will "send money" and has no sense of the urgency of reform, Hong Kong will only continue to languish and sink, and eventually everyone will be a loser.
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