Written by: Ban Shan
2020-02-24 07:00Last updated: 2020-02-24 07:00
A new "Budget" was released on Wednesday (26th). Different parties, including the organizational system and the Panmin people, almost asked the rich man Chen Maobo to open a position to send money, and everyone was 10,000. Uncle Po, who was under pressure, said in a blog yesterday that government resources are always limited and it is impossible to fully meet everyone's requirements.
According to government information, it is difficult for everyone to send 10,000 yuan. As the government's "treasurer", the wealthy man must adhere to a major financial management principle, that is, the fiscal deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP, otherwise it may be Affects Hong Kong's international credit ratings.
However, when sending money has become a rare "cross-party consensus," Chen Maobo's nationwide money distribution seems to be "the imperative."
The Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, made "leakages" for the Budget the previous year, but because of the chaos in the process of money distribution, he became struggling and unpleasant. What will happen this year? (Profile picture)
When the pneumonia epidemic did not occur in Hong Kong at the end of last year, although Chen Maobo did not publicly deny the payment of money, he repeatedly emphasized that households should "eat food", implying that it is not feasible to send money. However, with the onset of the epidemic, people's rush to purchase anti-epidemic materials has continued to occur, and people's grievances have rapidly increased. Even the DAB and the ADPL, which have always "no objected" to sending money, have also turned around and asked the government to send money to the whole people. Million.
Constitutional parties such as the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions recently met with Chen Maobo again and asked the government to consider allocating 10,000 yuan to the entire population as a "prevention subsidy." To benefit people, there is only one way. The implication is that they will actively consider sending money.
However, Chen Maobo's blog on the 16th of this month stated that the current pneumonia epidemic was even worse than SARS in 2003. He described it as a "tsunami-type" shock that could cause the unemployment rate to deteriorate rapidly. He announced a new fiscal policy. The projected fiscal deficit for the year (2020/21) is likely to be the highest ever, and the fiscal deficit is more likely to remain for some time.
Looking at the information, after the reunification in 1997, Hong Kong recorded a surplus for most of the year. Only 23 financial years have recorded deficits. The most serious one was "in red" in 2001/02, with a deficit of 63.3 billion yuan. According to Chen Maobo, 20/21 will be the sixth fiscal year after the reunification, and it will be the "highest ever." If the people send money, the deficit is likely to exceed 100 billion yuan. Can the government bear it?
Chen Maobo will issue a new budget next week, sending money to become a "cross-party consensus" recently. (Profile picture)
[Budget 2020] Hu Dingxu and Yang Limen use the fiscal reserves to send money to solve the urgent need
[Budget 2020] Chen Maobo released on Wednesday: Limited resources cannot satisfy everyone
[Budget] Implying that the people send money? Luo Zhiguang urges to wait and see unemployment rate of 5%
Fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP is still acceptable
In fact, Chen Maobo had announced early last month that this year's fiscal deficit will not exceed 3% of GDP, and Hong Kong's annual GDP is more than 2 trillion, 3% is equal to 80 billion yuan; internationally, if the deficit is between 2 To 3%, which is an acceptable level.
According to this statement, if the "Budget" sends 10,000 yuan to Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above, involving 65 billion yuan, plus the original deficit, it will break the 100 billion mark, far exceeding the threshold of fiscal deficits not exceeding 3% of GDP. Therefore, the major political parties "offered" 10,000 yuan, and the wealthy man could certainly not be satisfied.
However, this does not mean that the government will not send money to the whole people. If we take the 3% of GDP and the 80 billion yuan fiscal deficit as the boundary, the rich man actually still has about 40 billion yuan in space to send sugar. With reference to the experience of the former rich man Zeng Junhua sending 6,000 yuan, according to the current Hong Kong current 6.5 million 18-year-olds If the people of Hong Kong or above pay 6,000 yuan for everyone, it will involve about 39 billion yuan, which seems to be an affordable level for the government.
"In extraordinary times, use extraordinary methods." The fiscal deficit ratio should not exceed 3% of GDP. It is not the golden rule that the Hong Kong Government must never cross. The problem lies in the magnitude? When the Hong Kong government SARS in 2003, the fiscal deficit accounted for 3.2% of GDP at that time. The CEO of the Manufacturers Association, Yang Limen, pointed out yesterday that more than half a year of social events, many companies have already been "endured", the fiscal deficit does not exceed 3% of GDP is only a "magic percentage", not necessarily to follow, that the government should use rich fiscal Reserves help citizens and businesses.
All in all, will the budget pay 10,000 yuan as suggested by the political party, or 6,000 yuan along the road of his former Zeng Junhua? The possibility of the former has been underestimated.
2020 Budget Chen Maobo sends money